Book Title: Development Challenges of Pakistan: Constraints and Choices
Author: Jamil Nasir
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Pages: 616 pages
We reviewed the chapter on education from Jamil Nasir’s book, ‘Development Challenges of Pakistan: Constraints and Choices’ (available online on Amazon), in the previous issue of Criterion Quarterly. As mentioned in that review, this book attempts to analyze the “constraints and structures” that have hindered sustainable economic growth in Pakistan.
Due to the in-depth analysis and recommendations that this 616-page book unravels, we had decided that only a chapter-wise review, as opposed to a book review, would do the content justice. Considering the recent escalation in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, the chapter on militancy (Chapter 14: the Militancy Challenge) was chosen for review in this CQ issue.
Militancy (over decades) has severely impacted the long-term economic growth and development of Pakistan “by reducing productivity, economic activity, and business confidence, and by eroding positive benefits which peacefulness can have on the macroeconomics of a country.”
Jamil Nasir puts the above statement into perspective by analyzing some statistics from multiple studies conducted on the impact of terrorism on Pakistan’s socio-economic fabric.
The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-2017, mentioned in this chapter, for instance, “estimates the direct and indirect costs for the period 2001-2017 (16 years), incurred by Pakistan due to incidents of terrorism, to the tune of US$ 123.13 billion (Rs. 10,373.93 billion). The estimated economic costs include losses to the country’s exports, compensation to those affected by terrorism, lost foreign investments, decreased industrial output, decrease in tax collection, and damage to infrastructure, etc. A number of costs are not quantified by the Economic Survey of Pakistan. For example, downsizing of programs run by international and non-governmental agencies, missed educational opportunities due to denials of technology transfers, decreased foreign investments due to heightened risk assessments, and more stringent visa restrictions are some of the escaped costs.” Placing a dollar value on the escaped costs would increase the economic losses due to terrorism considerably from the official estimates.
Another study covering the period 1973-2008 “suggests that terrorism has cost Pakistan 33.02% of its total national income during the said period due to a fall in domestic investment and remittances. This loss approximately is equivalent to 1% of real GDP per capita growth every year.” And yet another study covering the period 1972-2014, “finds that 1% increase in terrorism reduces FDI by 0.104%, domestic investment by 0.039%, and economic growth by 0.002%.”
Shifting from the macro to micro socio-economic impact of terrorism, some researchers have estimated that “for every million people, an increase in terrorist incidents causes 26,501 fewer children to continue education at the primary school. According to the said research, the impact of terrorist incidents meant that approximately 520,000 children chose not to continue education in schools in 2015.” The author further elaborates on this through some harrowing statistics: “During the outbreak of militancy in Swat, militants gained control of the most of the Swat Valley and an estimated 80,000 girls were forced out of school. In South Waziristan, out of total 814 schools, 410 were destroyed by militants and in KPK province more than 900 educational institutions were closed and remained non-functional till eradication of the TTP terrorist activities.”
Jamil Nasir then progresses to the causes of terrorism or the motivation behind these acts. This is not a simple equation. There are multiple reasons, sometimes interlinked, that motivate militancy. When terrorism was in its peak, in 2013, a Pew survey conducted showed that 89% Pakistani’s said that violence was never justified.
In addition, the author debunks theories suggesting that poverty or Madrassa education, on their own, are motivators of terrorism. J. Nasir attributes a mix of external and internal factors that have contributed to militancy in Pakistan: “Externally, Kashmir dispute, Russian-Afghan War, revolution of Iran, and 9/11 are some of the incidents of history that intensified militancy, while internally structural factors such as uneven regional development, sharp socio-economic disparities, less focus on human resource development, bad governance, and interventions by the state in the religion market to strengthen the Islamic identity to the exclusion of other ethno-linguistic identities formented militant activities.”
While the author acknowledges that “Pakistan has achieved a tangible success in containing high level non-state militancy through its counter-militancy strategy mainly through its military operations in the military-infested areas”; he warns that these victories will not be sustainable unless structural modification, the poor human development indicators, socio-economic disparities, the rule of law, etc. are addressed. Until and unless these governance issues are fixed, the internal environment will remain vulnerable to the exploitations of militant organizations.
Through the analysis of data, studies and research, Jamil Nasir has given a historical and contemporary perspective to the menace of terrorism affecting Pakistan. This review has just touched the tip of the knowledge and wisdom that this chapter offers on the topic. It is a must read for strategists, policy makers, journalists, academics, etc. Seldom do we find such a comprehensive study available to us through just one source.
