Shifting the Political Landscape: A Closer Look at the 2024 United States Presidential Election
The American election scene took a dramatic turn following the televised debate between President Joe Biden and his challenger, Donald Trump on June 27. Biden’s overall performance in the acrimonious debate was widely perceived as below par. It confirmed the impression that at 81, the president had passed his prime.
Trump took full advantage of Biden’s vulnerability, pushing the point that his characterisation of “sleepy Joe” was not off the mark. While the US system places a limit on presidential terms at two, it has no provision to deal with a candidate’s old age or infirmity as a barrier to seeking election. In the event, a live debate helped to send home the signal that the president should withdraw from the presidential race – the sooner the better.
Democratic party veterans weighed in to help Biden make up his mind and his decision to withdraw from the presidential race was made public on July 21, 2024. That instantly moved public attention to who his replacement would be. Biden decided to play on the front foot by putting his weight behind vice president Kamala Harris to be the party’s candidate. Had Biden left the decision to party ranks the Democrats would have lost precious time in mobilising popular support. Having received widespread endorsement from party seniors, including former presidents Clinton and Obama, the party convention in Chicago massively endorsed the nomination of Kamala Harris as Democratic candidate for the presidential election on November 5.
The fading of Joe Biden energised the Democrats’ presidential campaign thereby promising a period of intense electioneering in the run up to the election. Opinion surveys signalled a fall in support for Trump. His five percent lead on Biden quickly evaporated and he was trailing behind Harris with the passage of time. Trump even began publicly regretting Biden’s departure from the race.
Kamala Harris, a California native, moved to balance the ticket by opting for Tim Walz, governor of the Midwestern state of Minnesota, as her running mate. A 60-year old Army National Guard veteran and public school teacher added a distinctive Rust Belt feature to the Democratic ticket. An Associated Press report suggested that by opting for Walz, Harris calmed the Democratic Party’s left wing, which was worried that another contender, Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, could have pushed the party closer to Israel and disheartened Arab American and younger voters. “Progressives are already celebrating Walz’s ability to deliver an unapologetically populist message in the style of a Midwestern dad who recalls the social studies teacher and football coach he once was”, concluded the AP report.
Trump had earlier selected a conservative populist J D Vance—an author, venture capitalist and a vocal rightist Senator from Ohio—as his running mate to boost his support among working class voters. Experts said that Trump’s choice of Vance signaled an embrace of hard-right “Make America Great Again” politics – and a break from the old-school Republican establishment.
Campaign Issues
A survey in July, 2024 revealed that inflation and high prices were the most important issues for US voters. Unemployment and the economy came next in the list of concerns. Other issues receiving attention of the voters are healthcare, education, illegal immigration, crime and gun violence, racism, climate change and the federal budget deficit.
A large number of Americans feel that the healthcare system needs an overhaul. The opinion is divided among those who are in favour of more funding from Washington with monitoring by the bureaucrats; others who favour government run models as in Europe and Canada; and a third group opting for patients and doctors in the driver’s seat, making health care providers and insurance companies compete for customers.
The Democrats support government through regulations while the Republicans consider this as a hindrance to free market capitalism and job growth. While the Democrats increased the government’s role in healthcare, as seen in Obamacare, the Republicans support healthcare through private companies.
Immigration is another leading issue as the debate over border security and immigration becomes increasingly acrimonious because politicians have put politics before principles. The rising cost of college and university education, leading to high levels of indebtedness is yet another cause of concern.
Furthermore, climate change is a highly important and controversial issue. Opinions are centred around America’s belief in free enterprise. Finally, there is the intractable task of poverty alleviation, as 12 percent Americans are considered poor despite a trillion dollar annual expenditure by federal, state and local welfare programmers.
Party Positions
In general terms, the Republicans are more conservative and right leaning while the Democrats are more liberal and left leaning. In the long list of differences between the two parties, the Democrats believe in fixing minimum wages while the Republicans uphold that wages should be set by free market.
While the Democrats favour progressive taxation, the Republicans are against higher taxes, including for the wealthy. On social issues, most Democrats support gay marriage while a majority of Republicans oppose the same. Most Democrats want abortion to be legal while many Republicans believe it should not be. There is greater support among Republicans for the death penalty as compared to the Democrats.
On immigration, there is greater support in the Democratic party for a moratorium on deportations and pathway to citizenship for those with no criminal record, who have lived in the US for over five years. The Republicans are against amnesty for undocumented immigrants. They also fund stronger enforcement actions at the border.
The Contenders
Former president Donald Trump is locked in a fierce contest with vice-president Kamala Harris after president Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Harris not only managed to close the gap with Trump in opinion surveys but was leading him by mid August at 50 to 46 percent. However, there are limits to the accuracy of opinion surveys. The result will depend on party wise voter turnout on November 5 and on how the undecided voters lend their support on election day.
Trump, despite having been president from 2017 to 2021, remains an odd character in US politics. His views on the economy, jobs and immigration are aimed at inciting nationalist and racist sentiments of white Americans. His running mate J D Vance chants the same mantra, to mobilise working class white voters.
Harris on the other hand stands for a more liberal and inclusive system where the state takes a lead for meeting social needs of the people. She has carefully chosen Tim Walz as her running mate to win support of the older and more conservative elements in the Democratic party. Under his watch, Minnesota became the third state to provide free lunch for all school children. Together, Harris and Walz have gone on the offensive, reversing the tide of Trump’s popularity and establishing a lead over the Republicans.
Foreign Policy
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in April 2024 revealed that the Republicans prioritize the prevention of terrorism, reducing the flow of illegal drugs and maintaining military advantage over other countries. Democrats prioritize dealing with climate change and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, but also preventing terrorist attacks.
Broadly speaking, the Democrats favour greater engagement with America’s partners and allies, recourse to multilateral institutions and reliance on diplomacy to resolve international issues. The Republicans are known as supporters of military preparedness and upholding national interest as compared to acting in conjunction with allies.
Republicans prioritize supporting Israel with the more conservative likely to favour increased military aid to Israel. However, the Democratic administration under Biden has also substantially increased military aid to Israel since the Hamas attack in October, 2023. Democrats are ahead of the Republicans in supporting Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February, 2022. Limiting the power of Russia and China has bipartisan support even if the parties may differ on practical steps or tactics for achieving policy goals.
In an interview with Elon Musk on X, Trump labeled Harris as being radical left, “far more left than Bernie Sanders”. He also criticised Harris for being anti-Israel, rendering her potentially harmful to both Israelis and Palestinians. Trump expressed sympathy for Israel, facing potential attacks from Iran and criticised the lack of effective leadership from the US for restraining Iran. He promised to impose stricter measures on Iran.
Outlook on Pakistan
Over decades, the Republicans consolidated relations with Pakistan, particularly in defence and economic spheres. The Democrats were friendlier to India despite the latter’s policy of non-alignment. However, bipartisan support for closer US-India cooperation has grown over the years. Bush Jr’s Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, vowed to help India become a great power.
Pakistan still enjoys the status of a Major Non-Nato Ally but India is now a major strategic partner. The upcoming election is not likely to change the US calculus as it seeks closer cooperation with India to check rising Chinese power, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
In this overall perspective, the US continues with its long-term policy of maintaining good relations with Pakistan as evidenced in support at the IMF and World Bank as well as through bilateral aid in military, economic and social fields.
In a message of felicitations on 14 August, 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wished a joyous independence day to all those celebrating the occasion in Pakistan, the United States and across the world. He further stated:
“In the years ahead, we will deepen the US-Pakistan partnership and expand our people-to-people ties to build a more prosperous future for both our nations. We look forward to continuing a partnership that makes both countries more secure as we strengthen our shared commitment to democratic principles and respect for the rule of law”.
Result Forecasts
Is America going to elect its first woman president on November 5, someone who also happens to be a mixture of ethnic backgrounds and upbringing – someone straight out of America’s melting pot? There are several indicators to that outcome as Donald Trump gets increasingly frustrated and rattled. He is prone to avoiding substantial issues being raised by the Democratic campaign, resorting to personal attacks against his opponents instead.
The Economist cautioned in mid August that although Harris was leading Trump by 3-4 percent, “it would be naive to assume that Ms Harris’s current momentum, impressive as it has been, will carry her all the way to the White House.” Voters need to know what policies they can expect from her on everything, from defending America to tackling crime and handling the economy, wrote the British weekly.
To conclude, the result still remains a close call. Opinion surveys are no substitute to an election. A fascinating though acrimonious contest lies ahead.
