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Afghanistan’s Evolving Landscape

Abstract

(America’s longest war came to a formal end with the departure of the last US C-17 half an hour before midnight on August 30. The Afghan war began as a ‘Just War’, with unanimous Global backing, soon it began to lose purpose, degenerated into an “Unwanted War” through to a ‘Wrong War’. There were many glorious moments when the US could have claimed victory and ended this war, but, each time, the opportunity was missed. Now bipartisan Sino phobia in the US Strategic calculus is tilting US focus towards China. This shift in priorities resulted in a hasty withdrawal and bypassed the phase of handing over the reins to a domestically acceptable political leadership. The flash victory of the “New Taliban” has thrown up the likelihood of a multi-dimensional meltdown of the political order that was established by the US. A multitude of spoilers are waiting on the side-lines to jump into the fray, at an opportune moment, to gain as much strategic space as possible. The current Afghan chessboard is complex and fast changing.

This paper examines the ongoing dynamics of the Afghan crises, its likely outcomes and options. – Author)

An Overview of America’s Longest War

In the wake of President Joe Biden’s announcement that all troops and contractors would be out by the end of August, public backlash ranged from disappointment at the war’s “failure” to lamentations that the US is withdrawing before the job has been finished.1 The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported on July 29, 2021, that the Afghan war “cost more than $2T and 240,000 lives”.2 Afghanistan faces an “existential crisis” after a continuing rise in Taliban attacks that began well ahead of the withdrawal of US troops from the country.3

The SIGAR report came a week after the United Nations pointed out that May and June 2021 saw the highest number of civilian war deaths and injuries in Afghanistan for those two months since systematic documentation began in 2009.4 The Taliban attacks on Afghan targets surged from 6,700 in the three months up to the Doha agreement to 13,242 in the September-November 2020 period. Attacks had remained above 10,000 in each subsequent three-month period.5

Over January-March of 2020, there were 510 civilian deaths and 709 casualties, after that the numbers surged, hitting 1,058 deaths and 1,959 injured in the third quarter that year, continuing at high levels, till the end of the war. Data, for April and May this year, showed 705 civilian deaths and 1,330 casualties, the SIGAR report said. “The overall trend is clearly unfavourable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it isn’t addressed and reversed,” said the inspector general. The United States agreed to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan in expectation that the Taliban would negotiate a peace deal with the Kabul government. “The Doha agreement, instead of propelling Taliban-Kabul talks, unleashed an offensive that caught government forces unprepared and increased the number of civilian deaths”, SIGAR added. Even though the Taliban-Afghan government talks remained stalled, the US kept steadily pulling out its troops down to a level of only several hundred, with an August 31 deadline for full withdrawal.

The Afghan war started as a ‘just war’, with unanimous Global backing, soon it began to lose purpose and degenerated into an ‘unwanted war’ through to a ‘’wrong war’. President Barrack Obama wanted to bring it to a close without having to acknowledge US defeat; this end objective soon became a bipartisan craze.6

President Donald Trump entered the White House with a firm grounding that keeping around 10,000 US troops in Afghanistan was a perennial necessity. He had promised not to start new wars and to bring some of the ongoing US wars to a responsible end. Soon after entering the White House, he tested the ‘Mother of All Bombs’ in Afghanistan, on April 13, 2017, to demonstrate that ending the Afghan war was a distant low priority for him.7 Trump tried his hand on the Syrian and Iraq wars but was unsuccessful. With his first term coming to a close and with little to report back to US citizens regarding the end of ongoing wars, he decided to expedite the end of the Afghan war. Multidimensional pressures were exerted on Pakistan to deliver the Taliban for a deal with the US. The deal was signed on February 29, 2020, whereby a phased withdrawal of US troops was to be completed by the end of May 2021.

Joe Biden sent confusing signals, casting an impression of abandoning the US-Taliban deal immediately after his inauguration. Pakistan’s calculus indicated that Biden did not have many options regarding the Trump-Taliban deal, and that the new president would not go beyond a few cosmetic adjustments to steal a bit of credit from Trump for bringing this war to a close. Biden inherited a military capability in Afghanistan comprising of 2500 soldiers. This limited presence could not sustain pursuit of any worthwhile strategic or military operational objective. Biden then changed the completion of pull-out schedule from end May 2021 to September 11, 2021, to coincide with the twentieth anniversary of the Twin Tower attack.

The Taliban were annoyed at Biden’s delay of withdrawal schedule. After which, their attacks on Afghan adversaries were so forceful that Afghan territories started falling like a house of cards, raising concerns regarding whether foreign troops could withdraw safely, what to talk of the capacity of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) to hold the fort on their own. The Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan relinquished his command. The haste with which the Bagram Air Base was vacated without a formal transfer of command and control to the ANDSF spoke volumes about fears of the known and the unknown.8

Former President Ashraf Ghani remained confident that his arch rival, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, negotiating with Taliban in Doha, would secure a new lease of life for his presidency. He also thought that the US would continue to support ANDSF, unconditionally and wholeheartedly. He said, “I spoke with President Biden over a phone call. We discussed the evolving but continuing relationship between the two countries. President Biden reassured me that support for the ANDSF will continue. We have confidence that they will protect & defend Afghanistan.” Ghani failed to note that the US President had linked all aid to Afghanistan to approval by the Congress, which is quite weary of wasting another penny in Afghanistan. The amount of aid slipped down from billions of dollars to a few million. Other forums, like the Friends of Afghanistan, are also feeling donor fatigue, as their showering of money did not translate into any tangible benefits. Reportedly, Ghani relocated most of his near and dear ones abroad. Most of the Afghans who acted as informers of foreign forces have also fled to the respective countries of their benefactors. Ghani himself kept waiting for the last flight that could safely take off from Kabul. When the Taliban reached the doorsteps of Kabul, Ghani left for Tajikistan on August 15 only to resurface later in UAE.

Pakistan’s National Security Adviser, Dr Moeed Yusuf, said that Pakistan would not accept a ‘forceful takeover’ in Afghanistan and would instead support a political solution to the conflict. The NSA stressed that the only solution for peace in Afghanistan was a “political one”.9

With the intra Afghan dialogue in Doha in shambles, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) met on August 06, to discuss and take stock of the situation in Afghanistan.10 UNSC members reaffirmed that there is no military solution to the conflict and “declared that they do not support the restoration of the Islamic Emirate”. The members of the Security Council called on both the Islamic Republic and the Taliban to engage for an inclusive, “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process in order to make urgent progress towards a political settlement and a ceasefire”.11 The Council expressed deep concern over the high levels of violence in the war-torn country.12

Pakistan is considered a key player in the peace process in Afghanistan, given Islamabad’s historical influence over the Taliban. The US Embassy statement of July 19 emphasised that: “Continued war in Afghanistan poses a risk to the entire region and holds back its development. Peace, by contrast, will enable regional connectivity and increased trade and development. We commit to do our part to make this vision a reality. Tangible and material support for the Afghanistan peace process is vital for its ultimate success, as are positive long-term relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan”.13

The Taliban’s rapid takeover of provincial capitals in Afghanistan put tremendous psychological pressure on the military and political leadership to stem the tide of the advance.14 Ashraf Ghani removed his Army Chief on August 11 due to his failure to arrest Taliban advances. He had only been in the post since June.15 Surprisingly, despite the turmoil, he did not resist the Presidential orders for his removal.

The US military resorted to air raids on the Taliban to stop the latter from taking more cities and to urge it to go back to the negotiating table. This did not prove as useful as it had been thought. The local media reported on August 07 that the US sent B-52 bombers and Spectre gunships from an airbase in Qatar, hitting targets around Kandahar, Herat, and Lashkar Gah in Helmand province in a bid to stop the Taliban, who were marching towards key cities.

The US peace envoy, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, articulated a warning to the Taliban on August 10 that any government that comes to power through force in Afghanistan won’t be recognized internationally.16 Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, thinks that the US’ tactics to pressure the Taliban with international recognition have failed and it is hard to make the Afghan government and the Taliban engage in a ceasefire. “Afghanistan may enter into the period with the ‘Syrian style’— battles will continue until one side wins,” Zhu told the Global Times.17

Biden is of the view that America should not have to sacrifice another generation in an unwinnable war. However, the former US president, George W. Bush, assessed the Afghanistan troops pull-out as a ‘mistake’. A July 12-13 Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed only about three in 10 Democrats and four in 10 Republicans believe the military should remain in Afghanistan.

The 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers triggered a conflict spanning nearly 20-years. According to the nonpartisan Costs of War project at Brown University, the war led to more than 3,500 US and allied military, more than 47,000 Afghan civilian and at least 66,000 Afghan troop deaths. In addition, over 2.7 million Afghans fled the county.18 This study does not include the over 70,000 deaths and financial loss of over 150 billion US dollars in Pakistan.

Reuters reported on July 20, 2021 19, that some US veterans say blood spilled in Afghanistan was wasted. Jason Lilley, a special operation forces Marine Raider who fought in multiple battles in Afghanistan said, “The whole point was to get rid of the Taliban and we didn’t do that. The Taliban will take over… A hundred per cent we lost the war…I don’t think one life was worth it on both sides”.20 However, veterans do differ about a war which they think improved women’s rights and led in 2011 to US Navy SEALS killing Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.21

Veterans, who spoke to Reuters, compared it with the conflict in Vietnam. They say both wars had no clear objective, multiple US presidents in charge, and a fierce and non-uniformed enemy. Veterans are disappointed that the United States did not seem to have learned lessons from Vietnam, where 58,000 American troops were killed in a war that failed to stop Communist North Vietnam from taking over the entire Vietnamese peninsula.22

A July 04 Editorial published by Pakistan’s leading newspaper Dawn, entitled “Bagram exit” aptly reinforces the uselessness of the Afghan War 23:

Once a modest Cold War airfield, Bagram was transformed into a sprawling fortress that projected American military power in the aftermath of 9/11 many thousands of miles from the US homeland. But today, now that the Americans and their allies have quit Bagram, it is fair to ask: has their ‘mission’ been accomplished? With the clouds of uncertainty swirling around Afghanistan’s future following the exit of foreign forces, the answer is clearly in the negative.

The fact is that the involvement of foreign forces in Afghanistan — first the Soviets in 1979 and later the Americans and their Nato cohorts — has only prolonged the Afghan nightmare. While Afghan political forces and warlords are no doubt also to blame for the dysfunction that haunts their land, the interference of foreign powers and the playing of geopolitical games on Afghan soil have had a major part in destabilising the country, and preventing an organic evolution and political process from taking root. Though it can be argued that Afghanistan has rarely seen stability, perhaps the script would have been written differently if the USSR and later the US had not meddled in the country over the last four decades and counting”.

Taliban’s Triumph

Uncertainty had been mushrooming during recent weeks, largely stimulated by fighting in most provinces as occupation troops were completing their withdrawal and the Taliban launched major offensives, taking districts, provinces and border crossings. General Mark Milley, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had acknowledged in July 2021, that the Taliban control about half of Afghanistan’s district centres24, indicating a rapidly deteriorating security situation. “Strategic momentum appears to be sort of with the Taliban25,” Milley, told reporters. Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centres were under Taliban control26. In June, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centres in Afghanistan. Afghan troops are in the process of “consolidating their forces” to protect those major urban centres, Milley added. Actually, Afghan troops were in a state of exodus, they were surrendering to the Taliban in droves— and that too without fighting.

On August 06, 2021, the Taliban captured the Afghan provincial capital Zaranj, in Nimroz27. The Taliban were able to capture the city because of a lack of reinforcements from the government, said a Nimroz police spokesperson. And since then, there was an unending list of provincial capitals falling to the Taliban. Finally, the Taliban moved into Kabul on August 15. The Taliban took Kabul without firing a bullet. President Ashraf Ghani left the country, as he saw the Taliban massing at the entry points to Kabul; he deserted the country and its citizens, leaving behind a deepening crisis. To retain his usual spoiler role, he did not resign or hand over power. He may create a nuisance by setting up a government in exile somewhere in the neighbourhood.

The Evolving Landscape

In tandem with the rapid fall of provincial capitals in Afghanistan and several countries asking their citizens to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible while drastically cutting down their diplomatic presence, came a stern statement from the Taliban, warning Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on August 02 that his time had “run out” and that his “declarations of war, accusations and lies could not prolong”.28

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said, “Anti- government elements” in Afghanistan attacked the main UN compound in the capital of the western province of Herat on July 30, at least one security guard was killed.29 UNAMA added that no UN personnel were hurt. Officials said that the attack, involving rocket-propelled grenades and gunfire, happened hours after Taliban fighters penetrated deep into Herat city. There were heavy clashes with Afghan security forces near the UNAMA provincial headquarters. A Western security official told Reuters that all diplomatic compounds in the city were put on high alert.3o Deborah Lyons, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, said, “This attack against the United Nations is deplorable and we condemn it in the strongest terms.”

Chinese and Russian military forces conducted joint military exercises in north-western China. Ties between the two states are growing amid uncertainty stemming out of instability in Afghanistan. The exercises involving ground troops and air force were carried out from August 09-13 in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous region.31 The region borders Xinjiang. Xinjiang shares a narrow frontier with Afghanistan, and Beijing is concerned about violence spilling over its border.32 The official Xinhua News said, citing Chinese and Russian officials, that the exercise aims to “deepen the joint anti- terrorism operations between the Chinese and Russian militaries and demonstrate the firm determination and strength of the two countries to jointly safeguard international and regional security and stability.”33

Central Asian leaders sounded the alarm over the acceleration of war in neighbouring Afghanistan at a summit in Turkmenistan on August 06, 2021.34 The talks in the resort town of Avaza on the Caspian Sea came after the militant group made sweeping gains in provinces near Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — the three ex-Soviet countries bordering Afghanistan.35 In a joint declaration, the five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — pledged to “provide all possible assistance” towards achieving peace in Afghanistan. The Taliban promptly established official contact with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The Taliban’s charm offensive included guarantees to support and secure regional economic projects, including a planned multi-billion dollar energy pipeline that would connect Turkmenistan’s giant gas reserves to markets in India and Pakistan through Afghanistan.36

South Asia has emerged as the convergence point of American, Chinese, and Russian interests in the run-up to the US’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan, which makes this region the most geo- strategically significant in the world right now. These three great powers are actively working to shape the situation in South Asia in partnership with its two most influential stakeholders, India and Pakistan. Interactions between the members of this “Quintet” in South Asia will greatly affect the future of the subcontinent and therefore the ongoing New Cold War between the American and Chinese superpowers, considering the region’s significance.37

The state of affairs is rapidly changing, but it’s still possible to identify a few top trends. These are: the transition from geopolitics to geo-economics; America’s & Russia’s efforts to balance between India & Pakistan; and America’s, China’s, and Russia’s cautious welcoming of the Taliban into the international community.38 The most recent developments of relevance are February’s agreement to build a Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s regional sojourn in early April; mid- July’s Tashkent conference about Central Asia-South Asia connectivity; the US’ “New Quad” with the PAKAFUZ states; US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to India; the Taliban’s latest travels to China; and Pakistani National Security Advisor, Moeed Yusuf’s, and Director- General ISI, Lt. General Faiz Hameed’s, trip to the US.39

During a July 22 meeting to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and the developments in Afghanistan’s peace negotiations, envoys of the US, EU, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and Norway 4o expressed “full support to an inclusive Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace process with full and meaningful participation of women that leads to a just and durable political settlement.” The statement added that they also highlighted “five elements of a final settlement that are most critical:
(1) inclusive governance; (2) the right to elect political leaders; (3) protections for human rights, including rights of women, youth and minorities; (4) commitments on counter-terrorism, including to ensure that Afghanistan does not again serve as a safe haven for terrorists; and (5) adherence to international law, including international humanitarian law.” The representatives emphasised that international support to any future government will depend, at least in part, on adherence to these five elements.

Pakistan is closely following the discussions at the United Nations Security Council on the situation in Afghanistan.41 It deeply regretted that, though as the closest neighbour of Afghanistan whose contribution in the ongoing peace process has been recognized by the international community, Pakistan’s request to the President of the Security Council (India) to address the Council’s session and present its perspective on the Afghan peace process and the way forward, on August 07 & 16, 2021 was not acceded to. On the other hand, the Council’s platform was made available to enable the peddling of a false narrative against Pakistan.42 In his statement at the UNSC, Afghanistan’s representative propagated disinformation and levelled baseless allegations against Pakistan with a view to mislead the international community.

Pakistan categorically rejected these accusations. Pakistan’s position on the issue has been shared with Security Council members. Pakistan has repeatedly shared its perspective on peace and stability in clear and unambiguous terms with the international community.

“We emphatically reiterate that there is no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan and that a negotiated political settlement is the only way forward for durable peace and security in the country. Towards that end, Pakistan’s constructive efforts with support of the international community led to achieving important milestones. Pakistan calls upon all warring sides in Afghanistan to eschew the military approach, engage constructively in negotiations, and work together to secure an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement. It is equally important to remain cognisant of spoilers, both within and outside, who do not wish to see the return of peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region… We reiterate the need for effective use of bilateral institutional arrangements such as the Afghanistan Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS)”.43

Likely Impact

For now, there are too many questions about Afghanistan, with no convincing answers in sight. Likewise, there are far too many unknowns regarding the way forward. Kabul is on its own.44 A Kabul based Western diplomat recently told Reuters that the US and NATO have “won many battles, but have lost the Afghan war”.45 If Afghanistan implodes again, real concerns of terrorism and refugees will confront the world community, particularly its neighbours.46 The Taliban said on July 23 that the organisation preferred to resolve the Afghan problem through dialogue, saying that it does not interfere in anyone’s internal affairs and, therefore, would not want any interference from others as well.47 The Taliban spokesperson, Dr Naeem, said, “Although the Islamic Emirate is now in a strong military position, its policy on peace has not changed. The Islamic Emirate prefers to resolve the Afghan problem through dialogue. We have no foreign agenda. We do not interfere in anyone’s internal affairs and we do not allow anyone else to interfere in our internal affairs.” He, however, sought the role of the international community in the war-stricken country’s reconstruction. He added that the Islamic Emirate does not allow any group or individual to use the territory of Afghanistan against the security of other countries. and that Afghanistan is the common home of all Afghans. The Islamic Emirate does not want a monopoly of power. All Afghans must participate in the construction, development, security and prosperity of their countries. “The international community must play an active role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan… The Islamic Emirate is committed to respecting human rights, women’s rights, education and interaction with the world in light of Islamic law and national interests,” Dr Naeem said.48

China has asked the Taliban to make a “Clean Break” from all terrorist forces. The Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi said that the Taliban should realise the responsibilities it bears for Afghanistan, make a “clean break” with all terrorist forces and return to the mainstream of Afghan politics.49 China told a visiting Taliban delegation on July 28 that it expected the Taliban group to play an important role in ending Afghanistan’s war.50 After the fall of Kabul, China expressed the desire to work with a friendly Taliban leadership in Kabul. Russia has also expressed its intent to maintain contacts with the Taliban.

Internal American assessment of Afghan War

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has all along been rendering very meaningful assessments of the Afghan war. In its latest report, released on July 29, SIGAR has criticised the government’s handling of two decades of operations in Afghanistan, pointing to shifting goal posts and unrealistic timelines as key reasons why the US withdrawal is yielding Taliban gains against ineffective Afghan security forces.51

Special Inspector General since July 2, 2012, John F. Sopko told reporters at a Defence Writers Group event, “You know, you really shouldn’t be surprised if you’ve been reading our reports for at least the nine years … that I’ve been there… We’ve been highlighting problems with our train, advice and assist mission with the Afghan military.” The issue, Sopko said, is that “the job” has had many faces since fall 2001. What started as a mission to dismantle the Taliban government morphed into a nation-building exercise, an effort to beat back numerous insurgent groups and strengthen a central Afghan government and military that would eventually fend for itself.52

Sopko quipped that military leadership on the ground “turned the corner” so many times that they’ve been going in circles for years, and it appears the US has settled back into its original goal in Afghanistan. “Every time we took a look at the assessment tools, our US military would change the goal posts and say, ‘Oh no, no, that’s not the test you want to do,’ to raising serious questions about the sustainability of all this high-tech hardware we gave them,” he said. “And to the real serious problem, that we focused on the more urgent war fighting and not looking at the what I call the ‘long tail,’ the whole issue of logistics.” 53

The report finds that the Afghan war cost more than $2T and 240,000 lives. The figures include half-a-trillion dollars on interest. The Costs of War Project estimates nearly $300 billion have been spent so far on caring for Afghanistan veterans.54

SIGAR reported that each quarter, since the US and Taliban signed a peace deal in February 2020, had shown a marked increase in enemy attacks compared to the same periods in previous years, and pointed out that NATO data on such increases had been kept from the public since December 2019. The report said that between March and May, enemy forces conducted nearly 10,400 attacks, over 1,000 more than were recorded during that time last year, and 3,000 more than the same time in 2019. Each of the last four quarters saw more than 10,000 enemy attacks, according to the data, which NATO said was based on reporting by Afghan forces and could be higher. Last year, the US said that the Taliban verbally agreed to curb violence and warned the insurgents would face consequences if they didn’t. But the relentless attacks did nothing to stop the drawdown of international forces, which is nearly complete.55

On July 26, the US Central Command leader, General Frank McKenzie, told reporters in Kabul that the military had stepped up airstrikes against the Taliban and could continue doing so, at least until the US combat mission in Afghanistan ended on Aug. 31. The announcement came just days before the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, said that the Taliban had taken control of about half of Afghanistan’s roughly 400 districts. Sopko, in a letter accompanying the report stated, “The overall trend is clearly unfavourable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it isn’t addressed and reversed.” Since the Taliban launched offensive in May, the Afghan army “appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot,” Sopko said.

“Most Afghan army units refuse to conduct missions without support from Afghan special operations forces”, Sopko said. “When special operations forces do arrive, they’re often misused to perform tasks intended for conventional forces, like route clearance and checkpoint security”, the report said. Therefore “wasting their capacity and burning them out at the same time”.

General Mark Milley told reporters in July that the ANDSF have the “capability” to keep the Taliban at bay. But whether they have the know-how and the wherewithal is another issue. Sopko said that whenever US leadership in Afghanistan was asked to show progress, they changed the metrics. “And every time we went in, the US military changed the goal posts, and made it easier to show success. And then finally, when they couldn’t even do that, they classified the assessment tool,” he said. “So, they knew how bad the Afghan military was. And if you had a clearance, you could find out, but the average American, the average taxpayer, the average congressman, the average person working in the embassy wouldn’t know how bad it was.”

The Afghan air force is an example of a success story, Sopko said, because their pilots are competent and they are able to fly their own combat missions. But they rely on contracted maintenance because there has not been a similar effort to train the mechanics. However, all Afghan Air Force aircraft have also become strained since the departure of most international troops because of increased requests for close air support, intelligence, reconnaissance missions and aerial resupply, SIGAR reported. The aircraft are flying at least 25% over their recommended maintenance intervals, which could have dire consequences, the report added. The Afghan air force operated a total of 211 aircraft, with about 167 planes and helicopters available for use as of June 30, according to the July SIGAR report.

Since the fall of Kabul, the Afghan Air Force is also undergoing a meltdown. Pilots are attempting to desert with their aircraft to neighbouring countries. One aircraft was shot down by the Uzbek Air Force on August 15 and 46 aircrafts and helicopters were forced to land on August 16 in Uzbekistan.56 The Taliban government is trying to get these planes and personnel back.

A culture of wishful thinking set the ANDSF up for failure. “We’ve highlighted time and again: we have unrealistic timelines for all of our work, and that is what now is causing the problems you see with the military,” Sopko added. “Don’t believe what you’re told … saying we’re never going to do this again,” he said. “That’s exactly what we said after Vietnam: we’re never going to do this again. Lo and behold, we did Iraq. And we did Afghanistan. We will do this again.”57

Analyses and Conclusions

It’s too early to float precise projections about the likely shape of evolving Afghanistan and its impact on the region in general and Pakistan in particular. There is a whole range of unknowns that will take their own time in unfolding. Nonetheless an attempt is being made.

Apparently, the two main participants—the Taliban and the United States—are on a collision course. A clearer picture of US’ intent will emerge once the evacuation is complete. The true mettle of the Taliban will be tested when they are confronted with the promises they need to fulfil and daunting governance challenges.

The Taliban are on trial, they must build an acceptable image through actions. Unless they walk the talk, they lose credibility. The American led West, alongside India, are anticipating their failure. Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and few others are hoping for a more favourable outcome. The rest are on the side-lines, with a mood of indifference.

Some analysists place America and India at the losing end of the war. The Americans have exited South Asia and will most probably not be seen there again for a long time. India is left behind to handle the consequences.58 Sunil Sharan aptly commented.

“The Indians trained officers of the Afghan National Army, who all chose to melt away as the Taliban took Kabul in 11 hours flat. What kind of training did our military academies provide the Afghan officers? It must be the same as being provided to their Indian counterparts. Should we not examine what went wrong with the Afghan officers?” 59

India has lost its springboard for disruptive activities in Pakistan. It will try its best to purchase spoilers from within Afghanistan and employ them for Hybrid warfare in Pakistan.

The US will not take any defeat lightly, it will do whatever is in its capacity to pressurize the Taliban. Economic and political sanctions would be their favourite toolkit. Coupled with an anti-Iran anti-China, anti-BRI/CPEC sentiment, the US may attempt to evolve a narrative of a new axis of evil.

Prime Minister Imran Khan said on July 29 that Pakistan was not “responsible” for the actions of the Taliban. “What the Taliban are doing or are not doing has nothing to do with us and we are not responsible, neither are we the spokesperson of the Taliban”.60 He reiterated that Islamabad wants only peace in Afghanistan. When asked about India, the premier said Pakistan would not accept Indian participation in the Afghan peace process till New Delhi reverts its illegal decisions of August 5, 2019.61

Pakistan is ready and willing to do anything necessary for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan issue, sans using force against the Taliban. “We believe that Afghanistan cannot be controlled from the outside. Our policy is to have the best relationship with whoever the people of Afghanistan choose,” said Imran Khan.62

PM Imran further said it was unfortunate that Pakistan was being blamed for the Afghan crisis as it was Pakistan that convinced the Taliban to come to the negotiation table. “What interest would Pakistan possibly have for a civil war in Afghanistan? We would do everything short of military action against the Taliban as doing so would only drag Pakistan into a conflict.” He further said that the civil war would spill over to Pakistan’s tribal areas.63

Regarding the provision of military bases to the US in Pakistan, Imran asked what the US could possibly achieve from operating out of Pakistan which they could not achieve by operating in Afghanistan for two decades. “It was a flawed strategy. They should have talked to the Taliban from a position of strength when there were 150,000 NATO soldiers present in Afghanistan”.64

According to Andrew Korybko (Express Tribune, July 20, 2021): “Some regional observers, particularly those in India, have wondered whether the 1990s-era Afghan Civil War dynamic of a regional proxy war can be replicated in the current context…

“The “Northern Alliance” of that former era was supported by India, Iran, and Russia, yet the Taliban surprised many by taking over much of Northern Afghanistan in the past few weeks. They’ve also expanded their presence along other borders as well, including the Iranian one. This pre-emptively thwarted the possibility of foreign actors providing sustained military support to any potential proxies there. They could of course still airlift such aid into the country, but it’s costlier and more conspicuous. Even in that case, however, such efforts would probably only be undertaken by India, not Iran, and certainly not Russia…

“Minister of External Affairs (MEA) Jaishankar’s trips to Tehran and Moscow obviously concerned the situation in Afghanistan, but it’s improbable that either of his hosts would have agreed to any speculative proposal to revive the “Northern Alliance”. Unlike during the 1990s, Russia and Iran nowadays have very serious connectivity interests in Afghanistan…

“The improvement of Russian-Pakistani relations occurred in parallel with the improvement of Chinese-Iranian ones, which set the strategic background against which their connectivity interests are converging in Afghanistan. India is the only regional actor of relevance that’s left out of this multipolar loop, though solely because it still refuses to pragmatically enter into talks with the Taliban out of principle. The continuation of this obstinate policy might see India clandestinely funnelling arms and other supplies to Kabul and local anti-Taliban proxies via its trans-Iranian air corridor with Afghanistan whether or not Tehran is even made aware of this.

“While some in New Delhi would obviously be in favour of this scenario, it arguably wouldn’t be in India’s long-term strategic interests to perpetuate the Afghan Civil War by proxy…. India cannot realistically change the on-the-ground situation in Afghanistan’… Going at it alone would also risk further ruining India’s international reputation by portraying itself as a so-called “rogue state”.65

The Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said on July 31 that Russia regrets that the current situation in Iran-US relations does not allow Tehran to join the Extended Troika on Peaceful Settlement in Afghanistan (Russia, the US, China and Pakistan).66 However, the situation may change after the fall of Kabul. Iran may soon become a potent member of an Afghan peace process.

America may have to struggle to stay out of Afghanistan, its experience with Syria and Iraq says so. It had to return militarily to both these countries as D’aesh sprang up in the vacuum created by the US withdrawal.67

According to an article by Patrick J. Buchanan, “The huge investment in blood and treasure by the United States over two decades to remake Afghanistan appears about to be wiped out, whole and entire, and we appear about to sustain our worst diplomatic and political defeat since the fall of Saigon.”68

The meltdown of the ADNSF started before the fall of Kabul as its two contingents sought safe passage to Pakistan.69 Now, after the fall of Kabul, the numbers seeking refuge have soared as they attempt to find refuge in other neighbouring countries as well. During recent weeks of fighting, the 300,000 strong Afghan security forces displayed a lack of will to fight. The Taliban seized most of the territory without any meaningful resistance.

Pakistan is likely to face pressure over the Afghan issue.70 The US is not likely to take Pakistan’s refusal to provide military bases kindly. Prime Minister Imran khan, on July 28, expressed concern that there will be a lot of pressure on Pakistan on the issue of Afghanistan “but instead of bowing down to the pressure, the government will make decisions for the betterment of the people”.

The invasion of Afghanistan began 20 years ago. An armada of 55 countries entered and stayed in Afghanistan for two decades, continuously blaming Pakistan for everything that went wrong in Afghanistan. Now that they have left, they will continue to blame Pakistan for what may go wrong in Afghanistan during the coming months and years.

A question also arises over why President Biden did not reverse former President Trump’s decision when he had the opportunity. He went against saner advice and the expedient way that the withdrawal was conducted precipitated an avoidable crisis.71 Above all, Biden’s faith in the ANDSF, that the US and its allies had helped build, was grossly misplaced. The US will, however, continue to have sufficient military and economic muscle, for decades, to effectively maintain influence and pressure over countries of the size and capacity of Pakistan.

Alongside the international community, Pakistan has a role to play in emerging Afghanistan in a multi-sectorial capacity and capability building.

It’s time for Pakistan to keep controversial issues, like the Durand Line, in cold storage, at least for a decade plus. Pakistan needs to improve people to people contact with the Afghan people and introduce hassle free travelling, starting with a liberal visa policy, leading to visa free regimes for a select category of travellers.

Pakistan should ensure that Afghan refugees return to their country with honour and dignity so that they serve as permanent ambassadors of Pakistan to Afghanistan. Refugees who have spent more than 5 years in Pakistan should be given special visas and investment incentives. The highly skilled amongst them could even be offered special quota for employment.

Withholding of legitimate flow of money to Afghanistan by the US, IMF, World Bank and others72 foretells the magnitude of the gathering storm. Pakistan should take initiatives for establishing an “International Fund for Reconstruction of Afghanistan” under the auspices of the United Nations and Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Above all, Pakistan should maintain an even-handed approach towards all stake holders of Afghanistan.

References

  1. Meghann Myers, ‘We will do this again,’ Afghanistan IG warns of future drawn- out wars”, Military Times, July 29, 2021. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/07/29/we-will-do-this-again-afghanistan-ig-warns-of-future-drawn-out-wars/
  2. Ibid.
  3. Phillip Walter Wellman, “‘Surprised and unready’: Afghan forces have faced surge of attacks since US-Taliban deal, report says” Stars and Stripes, July    29, 2021. https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2021-07-29/taliban-attacks-increase-sigar-afghanistan-2357251.html
  4. Ibid.
  5. Ibid.
  6. Iqbal Khan, “Afghanistan’s journey through chaos”, Pakistan Observer, July 28, 2021. https://pakobserver.net/afghanistans-journey-through-chaos-by-iqbal-khan/
  7. Ibid.
  8. “The top US commander in Afghanistan relinquishes his command, prepares   to depart, as America’s ‘forever war’ nears  end”,  Associated  Press,  San Diego Union-Tribune, July 12, 2021. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2021-07-12/the-top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-relinquishes-his-command-prepares-to-depart-as-americas-forever-war-nears-end
  9. Pakistan won’t accept forceful takeover in Afghanistan: NSA”, Express Tribune, August 05, 2021. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2314048/pakistan-wont-accept-forceful-takeover-in-afghanistan-nsa
  10. “UNSC to hold meeting, take stock of situation in Afghanistan, says ambassador TS Tirumurti”, India Today, August 05, 2021. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/unsc-to-hold-meeting-take-stock-of-situation-in-afghanistan-says- ambassador-ts-tirumurti-1836935-2021-08-05
  11. Ibid.
  12. Ibid.
  13. US Embassy & Consulates in Pakistan, “Statement on the Visit to Pakistan by Ambassador Khalilzad”. July 19, 2021. https://pk.usembassy.gov/statement-on-the-visit-to-pakistan-by-ambassador-khalilzad-4/
  14. Liu Xin and Wang ”Intl meeting begins on Afghan peace; China could play ‘bigger role’ to mediate”, Global Security, August 11, 2021. “https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231248.shtml
  15. “Afghanistan war: Army chief replaced as Taliban seize more cities”, BBC, August 12, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58170847?piano-modal
  16. Ibid.
  17. Ibid.
  18. “’We lost’: Some US veterans say blood spilled in Afghanistan was wasted”, Dawn, July 20, 2021. https://www.dawn.com/news/1636221/we-lost-some-us-veterans-say-blood-spilled-in-afghanistan-was-wasted
  19. Ibid.
  20. Ibid.
  21. Ibid.
  22. Ibid.
  23. “Bagram exit”, Dawn, July 04, 2021. https://www.dawn.com/news/1633112
  24. “Half of all Afghan district centres under Taliban control, says top US genera”, Dawn/Reuters, July 22, 2021.   https://www.dawn.com/news/1636419
  25. Ibid.
  26. Ibid.
  27. “Afghanistan war: Taliban capture regional capital Zaranj”, BBC, August 06, 2021 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58119886?piano-modal  
  28. “Taliban tell President Ghani ‘his time is up’”, Pakistan Observer, August 03, 2o21 https://pakobserver.net/taliban-tell-president-ghani-his-time-is-up/
  29. “UN compound attacked in western Afghanistan, at least one guard killed”, Reuters , July 30,2021 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-fighters-enter-provincial-capital-clash-with-afghan-forces-2021-07-30/
  30. Ibid.
  31. “Amid US Afghan withdrawal, Chinese, Russian militaries hold drill in northwest China”, Associated Press, August 10, 2021. t 10, 2021. https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/08/10/amid-us-afghan-withdrawal-chinese-russian-militaries-hold-drill-in-northwest-china/   
  32. Ibid.
  33. Ibid.
  34. “Central Asian leaders warn of chaos as Taliban gain ground”, The Hindu, August 06, 2021. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/central-asian-leaders-warn-of-chaos-as-taliban-gain-ground/article35775350.ece
  35. Ibid.
  36. “Central Asian leaders warn of chaos as Taliban gain ground”, The Hindu, August 06, 2021. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/central-asian- leaders-warn-of-chaos-as-taliban-gain-ground/article35775350.ece
  37. Andrew Korzybski, “How the US, China, India, Pakistan and Russia are reshaping South Asia”, Express Tribune, July 31, 2021. https://tribune.com.pk/article/97442/how-the-us-china-india-pakistan-and-russia-are-reshaping-south-asia
  38. Ibid.
  39. Ibid.
  40. “US-Europe Communiqué on Afghanistan and Peace Efforts”, The Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson, July 23, 2021. https://www.state.gov/u-s-europe-communique-on-afghanistan-and-peace-efforts/
  41. “UNSC Briefing on Afghanistan”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Spokesperson’s Office), PR No.373/2021, August 07, 2021.
  42. Ibid.
  43. Ibid.
  44. “Bagram exit”, Dawn, July 04, 2021 https://www.dawn.com/news/1633112 .
  45. Ibid.
  46. Ibid.
  47. Ibid.
  48. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2311831/taliban-say-want-resolution-of-afghan-issue-through-dialogue
  49. Taboola, “China Asks Taliban To Make “Clean Break” From All Terrorist Forces”, NDTV, July 14, 2021. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-asks-taliban-to-make-clean-break-from-all-terrorist-forces-2486319
  50. “China hopes Taliban will play vital role in ending Afghan war”, Pakistan Observer, July 29, 2021. https://pakobserver.net/?s=China+hopes+Afghanistan
  51. Meghann Myers, ‘We will do this again,’ Afghanistan IG warns of future drawn- out wars”, Military Times, July 29, 2021. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/07/29/we-will-do-this-again-afghanistan-ig-warns-of-future-drawn-out-wars/
  52. Ibid.
  53. Ibid.
  54. Phillip Walter Wellman, “‘Surprised and unready’: Afghan forces have faced surge of attacks since US-Taliban deal, report says” Stars and Stripes, July    29, 2021. https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2021-07-29/taliban-attacks-increase-sigarafghanistan2357251.html?utm_source=Stars+and+Stripes+Emails&utm_campaign=Daily+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Stars+and+Stripes+Emails&utm_campaign=d288559e9c-Newsletter+-+Daily+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0ab8697a7f-d288559e9c-296602056
  55. Ibid.
  56. “Afghan air force flees en masse: Uzbekistan SHOOTS DOWN one fighter plane and forces another FORTY SIX helicopters and planes to land carrying 600 Afghan soldiers”, Mail Online, August 16, 2021. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9898985/Uzbekistan-forced-landing-46-military-aircrafts- carrying-nearly-600-Afghan-soldiers.html
  57. Ibid.
  58. Sunil  Sharan,  “The  Lonesomeness  of   defeat”,   The   Statesman,   August 24, 2021. https://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/the-lonesomeness-of- defeat-1502997421.html
  59. Ibid.
  60. Pakistan not responsible for Taliban, neither its spokesperson: PM Imran”, Express Tribune, July 29, 2021. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2312798/pakistan-not-responsible-for-taliban-neither-its-spokesperson-pm-imran
  61. Ibid.
  62. Ibid.
  63. Ibid.
  64. Ibid.
  65. https://tribune.com.pk/article/97433/why-the-afghan-civil-war-will-not-turn-into-a-regional-proxy-war
  66. “Russia regrets Iran cannot join Extended Troika on Afghanistan, presidential envoy says”, Tass, August 03, 2021. https://tass.com/world/1322135
  67. “As US leaves Afghanistan, history suggests it may struggle to stay out”, New York Times, August 10, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/10/world/middleeast/biden-iraq-afghanistan.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campain=EBB08.20.21&utm_term=Editorial-20MilitaryEarlyBirdBrief
  68. Ibid.
  69. “Another group of Afghan military personnel given refuge by Army: ISPR” Express Tribune, July26, 2021. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2312190/another-group-of-afghan-military-personnel-given-refuge-by-army-ispr
  70. Pak to face pressure over Afghan issue: PM”, Pakistan Observer, July 29, 2020 https://pakobserver.net/pak-to-face-pressure-over-afghan-issue-pm/
  71. “Britain asks: Is America back or has it turned its back?”, Reuters/Express Tribune, August 16, 2021. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2315885/britain-asks-is-america-back-or-has-it-turned-its-back . Britain fears the vacuum left by the West’s chaotic withdrawal will allow militants to gain a foothold in Afghanistan.
  72. Beth Timmins,”IMF suspends Afghanistan’s access to funds”, BBC, August 20, 2021 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58263525?piano-modal23

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