by Ayesha Ishfaq
The concept of a strong middle class can be traced back to the ideas of Aristotle, who believed that the middle class was essential for a virtuous and stable society. According to Aristotle, the middle class possessed the ability to reason, unlike the arrogant elites or the envious poor. He argued that a lasting and balanced polity could only exist when the middle class ruled either on its own or in collaboration with the other two groups, as they could moderate the excesses of both (Politics IV.11.1295b4–6). However, Aristotle noted that this ideal state rarely existed, as whichever group gained power tended to prioritize its interests over the well-being of others.¹
Throughout history, various philosophers have discussed the middle class, but their definitions and criteria for classifying it have differed. Marx, for example, linked the middle class to the means of production and positioned it between the bourgeoisie (those who own the means of production) and the proletariat (those who must sell their labor). This middle class, often referred to as the petty bourgeoisie, included small producers and proprietors like shopkeepers and small manufacturers. Weber, on the other hand, viewed the middle class in terms of wealth, power, and prestige. In terms of wealth, the middle class comprised individuals who were neither extremely wealthy nor unskilled laborers. In terms of power, they held a position between those who followed commands and those who could achieve their goals despite opposition. Similarly, in terms of prestige, they were neither subjected to disrespect nor entitled to special treatment. According to Weber, the middle class occupied a middle position in all these continuums. Sridharan (2004) argued that the classical approach to analyzing the middle class was inadequate for understanding contemporary societies, particularly in the developing world. He emphasized that the growth of capitalist economies relied on advancements in knowledge and improvements in the regulatory state machinery, leading to the emergence of a new middle class consisting of educated professionals in white-collar occupations. This group’s income fell between the capitalists and the manual workers, and its size and influence grew over time, impacting the political and ideological aspects of society, especially as economies shifted towards the services sector.²
Easterly (2001) conducted one of the first cross-country studies focusing exclusively on the middle class. He introduced the concept of a “middle-class consensus,” which referred to a higher proportion of middle-income groups in the income distribution and a lower degree of ethnic conflict in society. He cited 19th-century England as an example of a middle class that facilitated industrialization through political harmony and concluded that countries with a middle-class consensus experienced faster economic growth.³
Banerjee and Duflo (2008) further explored the role of the middle class in economic growth. They identified several reasons why the middle class is important, including its potential as a source of entrepreneurship, its emphasis on human capital accumulation and savings, and its demand for quality goods and services. By analyzing household surveys from 13 developing countries, Banerjee and Duflo found that steady employment was the most significant characteristic of the middle class, enabling them to contribute to growth through investment and consumption behaviours. Middle-class consumers are willing to pay a premium for quality products, which encourages investment in better production methods and competitive marketing. This, in turn, leads to increased production levels and income growth for everyone.⁴
However, concerns have been raised by Singh (2005) and Basu (2003) regarding middle-class consumption patterns. While consumer spending can stimulate the economy in the short term by boosting aggregate demand, it does not necessarily translate into sustainable long-term growth. Points have been expressed about the sustainability of high levels of consumption and their impact on savings and investment.⁵
Nevertheless, the middle class has been associated with policy reform, democratic values, and good governance. It is seen as a key factor in promoting economic growth, as it supports investments in health, education, infrastructure, and modernization. A stronger middle class is also less likely to be associated with social conflicts and political instability.
Recent discussions have suggested shifting policy orientations toward middle-class-centric approaches, recognizing the middle class’s potential to drive growth and reduce poverty. The size and influence of the middle class are expected to continue growing, making it increasingly relevant in development planning.
The middle class also plays a crucial role during political transitions. Depending on the circumstances, the middle class can act as a catalyst for change or work to maintain the existing status quo. If the middle class believes that their children will maintain their middle-class status, they may be less likely to resent semi-democratic systems or even support autocracy to prevent redistribution. Conversely, if the middle class feels uncertain about its status, it may align with the lower class to advocate for redistribution within a democratic framework. This ambivalent behavior underscores the political importance of the middle class, as they often become the decisive voters in democratic systems.⁶
Despite economic growth being a key factor in sustaining democracies, as noted by Larry Diamond, and Fareed Zakaria, in his influential book “The Future of Freedom” published in 2003, discusses the emergence of “illiberal democracies” worldwide. These are countries, often relatively poor, where elections take place but individual rights, the rule of law, and other aspects of constitutional liberalism are lacking. Zakaria explains that when countries become democratic at low levels of development, their democracy is often short-lived.⁷
The Pew Global Attitudes Project consistently finds broad support for democracy across different regions and countries, regardless of their wealth. Moreover, this analysis suggests that members of the global middle class tend to express a stronger desire for democracy compared to their less affluent counterparts.⁸
Mapping the Middle Class in Pakistan
Pakistan’s middle class has long been a formidable force, shaping the country’s politics, society, and economy. From the struggle for independence to the present day, this influential segment has played a pivotal role.
Unfortunately, the Pakistani government has not provided an official estimate or definition for the middle class, leading to varying assessments by different groups and organizations. While some, like Adnan Adil, a reporter at The News International, and Jawaid Abdul Ghani, a professor at the Institute of Business Administration Karachi, focus solely on economic indicators, others argue that lifestyle factors should also be taken into account. The growing number of cars, profusion of restaurants, retail brands, private schools and hospitals are also a good indicator of a growing consumption class.
In a notable 2011 Working Paper for the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Durr-e-Nayab, a former lecturer, proposed a comprehensive methodology to define the middle class. Her approach involved a weighted composite index that combined relative and absolute measures to derive a percentage. Key factors considered included education (at least one household member with a college degree), income (twice the national poverty line), housing (ownership, living conditions, and access to utilities), lifestyle (expenditure on consumer goods), and occupation (transitioning away from manual labor).⁹
According to Nayab’s estimations, the expanded middle class, encompassing the upper-lower class to the upper-middle class, constituted 34.6 percent of the population in 2011. Given Pakistan’s rapid middle-class growth in recent years, these figures are expected to be even higher today. Notably, between 1999 and 2018, the middle class expanded at an average rate of 16.2 percent per year, surpassing the overall population growth rate of approximately 2.4 percent. However, this average rate is not the exact estimation. According to an analysis undertaken by Profit magazine in collaboration with Elphinstone, real income growth – that is, in inflation-adjusted terms – is just 0.6% per year for the past two decades.¹⁰ This is a true depiction of what Khurram Husain once wrote, in his column in Dawn, when he quoted an anonymous source as saying: “They give you economic growth for a few years, but then they take it all back in inflation.”
In light of the recent surge in inflation, the stability of the middle class has been compromised, causing many individuals to no longer fit within its defining parameters. Even with the World Bank’s middle-income standard of $10 a day, the devaluation of the rupee against the dollar has pushed numerous people out of the middle-income bracket. Financial experts reported in April 2023 that the significant increase in inflation in Pakistan was severely impacting the economic well-being of families, grappling with soaring food and energy prices. Inflation in Pakistan tripled within a year, reaching a peak rate of 36.4 percent in April, the highest since 1964.¹¹
However, referring to the above criteria of the ‘middle class’, instead of ‘middle income’ many other factors come into play when deciding their fate. Therefore, inflationary trends do not directly affect the class structure and, consequently, the middle class. As a result, the size of the middle class in the country is expected to increase. Despite modest economic growth, there are ongoing changes in educational attainment and lifestyles in Pakistan. For instance, between 2011 and 2021, the proportion of Pakistanis holding an undergraduate degree or higher increased from four to six percent of the population. Within this age group, the proportion of women with an undergraduate degree has nearly doubled.
Moreover, the rise of the gig economy and information technology, driven by the youth bulge, has prompted daily wage earners low-income salaried groups, and unemployed youth to make concerted efforts to join the middle class. Pakistan has been ranked among the top ten fast-growing countries in freelance earnings by the Global Gig Economy Index of Payoneer, further highlighting the potential for upward mobility.¹²
Evolution of Pakistan’s Middle Class: A Historical Perspective
The middle class in colonial and post-independence Pakistan played a significant and multifaceted role in shaping the country’s political, social, and economic landscape. During colonial India, the Muslim middle class employed in white-collar jobs in state apparatus, known as Muslim salariat by Hamza Alavai, served as intermediaries between the British colonial government and the Indian population. They advocated for the ‘indigenization’ of government and also pushed the idea of a separate state of Pakistan due to their perceived threat from Hindus. Following the partition in 1947, the middle class, particularly the Muslim salariat, occupied influential positions within the new state. Leveraging their bureaucratic connections, the middle class effectively mobilized various sections of the community in nation-building efforts.
Throughout Pakistan’s history, the middle class actively participated in political and social movements. During Ayub Khan’s dictatorship, some initially supported his depoliticization efforts, but later aligned with trade unions and supported the working class in rallying against Ayub Khan after the disproportionate distribution of wealth to the upper class during the economic boom. During the 1960s and 70s, the middle class also played a role in addressing social issues and fostering a vibrant civil society in Pakistan through associations and organizations. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, as Prime Minister from 1971 to 1977, garnered support from the emerging middle class through policies aimed at social justice, including the implementation of a progressive constitution, establishment of educational institutions, and basic healthcare services, all of which laid the foundations for social and economic growth in Pakistan. However, his populist measures caused divisions within the middle class, particularly among the more affluent urban segment. During Zia-ul-Haq’s dictatorship from 1979 to 1989, religion was used to legitimize his rule among the middle class, leading to the strengthening of radical religious tendencies. After Zia’s death, General Pervez Musharraf’s military dictatorship from the early 2000s brought economic growth and an expansion of the middle class, but his autocratic actions led to opposition from the middle class, ultimately resulting in his resignation.¹³
Empowering the Contemporary Middle Class
The emergence of a new middle class in Pakistan, particularly during Musharraf’s administration has brought about significant differences compared to the old middle class. These confident and assertive middle-class individuals are actively reshaping the economy, society, and political landscape of the country. Urban spaces are being transformed by the rapid development of gated communities and glamorous shopping malls, while the media plays a central role in shaping public opinion. Alongside these changes, new narratives and discourses are emerging, blending Islamic orthodoxy, skyscrapers, and luxury brands, influenced by the Gulf region.
Although the structural roots of the new middle class can be traced back to the 1960’s and lately during the Musharraf regime it is their recent increase in numbers and visibility that sets them apart. This growth is a consequence of policy decisions that have encouraged private consumption and facilitated extensive urban real estate development since the late 1990s. Unlike the Western-educated middle class of the past, these newcomers bring with them a distinctive cultural identity rooted in Islamic and nationalist values. This marks a deliberate repositioning within a changing global order and signifies a departure from the colonial-era mindset. As the transition of power gradually takes place from state institutions, characterized by their colonial mentality, to a generation educated and raised in the post-partition era, the end of the colonial mindset becomes evident. This new middle class not only includes salaried professionals but also rural and rural-urban middle class. These individuals, operating as small capitalists in various sectors such as bazaars, wholesale markets, transportation, and agriculture, differentiate themselves from the salaried middle class in terms of their economic structure and interests. They exploit inflation and shortages of essential goods for profit, and often engage in tax avoidance, thereby weakening the fiscal power of the state from which the salaried middle class expects infrastructure and basic services. Traders belonging to the middle class, both in urban and rural areas, have demonstrated their strong resistance to taxation, driven by their self-serving motives for economic prosperity.¹⁴
Furthermore, while the new middle class has played a role in advancing women’s rights, it showcases a more socially conservative outlook compared to its predecessor. This conservatism aligns with Pakistan’s broader Islamic revivalism, which stems from the desire to assert a distinct Islamic identity amidst evolving political realities. The newfound love for Turkish Muslim history and heroes in television series is a testament to this. This new middle class is also evolving as it uses social media to interact with the outside world more. It is “a global pioneer in digitally fuelled amplification of protests” and has the power to take down governments.¹⁵
This phenomenon highlights the fact that the ascendance of the middle class as a counter-elite to industrialists and agriculturalists, both in urban and rural areas, is a significant historical development. In the past, this class was relatively dormant during ideological conflicts. Their rise to prominence is not the result of a prolonged power struggle, but rather a consequence of demographic changes within the country.
This emerging middle class seeks to challenge the entrenched power dynamics in Pakistan and aspires to rise against the ruling elite. Motivated by shared concerns, a similar worldview, and a desire to improve their financial well-being, they aim to consolidate their newfound power and prestige. It is worth noting that, despite their self-serving tendencies, this class demonstrates a surprising level of awareness and consciousness about the future of their nation.
While the new middle class consolidates its influence, it lacks the progressive vision required to rectify the underlying structures of inequality in Pakistan. Scholars like Akbar Zaidi rightly highlight that middle-class politics in Pakistan is hardly progressive. The intellectual depth and ideological grounding of this middle class are lacking, as it has abandoned its previous leftist tendencies focused on social and liberal ideologies. Despite Pakistan’s 64% youth bulge, which should foster new ideas to resolve socio-economic and political crises, the UNDP National Youth Perception Survey of 2015 paints a grim picture, revealing that 94% of the youth lack access to libraries, illustrating the poor state of higher education and research in novel areas of study. Consequently, the responsibility falls on the government to seize the initiative. The government wields considerable power, including the usage of media channels such as television, radio and now social media. These platforms can be harnessed as effective tools for intellectual development.¹⁶
Similarly, if Pakistan’s economy is to progress, the detrimental pattern of crash-and-boost induced by the electoral cycle must be addressed. Economic fluctuations are inevitable and if they are driven by natural factors rather than short-sighted political interventions, there is a greater possibility for sustained growth in average inflation-adjusted income levels.
In this regard, voices have advocated for a Charter of the Economy, which would entail a commitment from major political parties to maintain some level of policy continuity on macroeconomics. This approach would allow for flexibility in implementing different policies based on ideological perspectives while ensuring a degree of stability and coherence in economic decision-making.¹⁷
Furthermore, the government should prioritize middle-class-centric policies over those focused solely on the elite or impoverished segments of society. This entails easing the tax burden on the already
strained middle class. In the long run, land reforms and reduction in non-productive expenditures should be pursued, with a greater budget allocation to education and healthcare. This approach will strengthen the growing middle class, which serves as a breeding ground for investment opportunities for multinational corporations. Pakistan, with its sizeable population, can position itself as a significant consumer market, emulating the success of neighboring countries like India and China.
The state and role of the middle class in Pakistan cannot be better described than in the words of Burke (2010) when he uses the analogy of the car, Suzuki Mehran, for the middle class in Pakistan and says, “In Pakistan, the hierarchy on the roads reflects that of society. If you are poor, you use overcrowded buses or a bicycle. Small shopkeepers, rural teachers, and better-off farmers are likely to have a $1,500 Chinese or Japanese motorbike…. Then come the Mehran drivers. A rank above them, in air-conditioned Toyota Corolla saloons, are the small businessmen, smaller landlords, more senior army officers and bureaucrats. Finally, there are the luxury four-wheel drives of feudal landlords, big businessmen, expats, generals, ministers and elite bureaucrats. The latter may be superior in status, power and wealth, but it is the Mehrans which, by dint of numbers, dominate the roads.”¹⁸
* The author holds a master’s degree in peace and conflict studies and is interested in topics related to social issues and conflict situations in Pakistan.
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