Pakistan’s Climate Agenda

by Ambassador (R) Shafqat Kakakhel*

*The author is a former Ambassador and Deputy Secretary General of UNEP.

Abstract

This article seeks to review the major policies evolved by Pakistan and the institutions established by it to promote efforts toward mitigation and adaptation of climate change and mobilize financial resources to implement its climate programs and projects.  It also offers some ideas on enhancing the success of its climate agenda in the short and longer terms. – Author)

Unless the deadly coronavirus pestilence continues to defy the all-out global efforts to contain its spread within the next few months, thousands of representatives of the international community will assemble in the Scottish city of Glasgow at the end of October for two weeks of intense discussions on stepping up concerted actions to ward off the looming climate crisis for which there can be no vaccine.

The Glasgow climate conference (officially known as the twenty sixth meeting of the parties of the international agreements on climate change or COP 26), hosted by Britain and jointly run with Italy was slated to take place in November 2020 but was put off for a whole year due to Covid -19.¹

COP 26 is being convened against a deeply sobering backdrop. The year 2020 was found to be the hottest year of the decade and it saw an increase in climate induced extreme events in all regions of the world.  During this year, there were devastating wildfires in Australia, Siberia, the American West and South America and as many as thirty storms in the Atlantic, leading to a “hurricane season”.  According to the latest climate report of the World Metrological Organization, global temperature had already risen to 1.2°C and there is a 20% possibility we might see an annual average above 1.5°C before 2024.²

The special report of the Inter-governmental panel on climate change had warned that reaching the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C enshrined in the Paris Agreement (2015) would require “rapid, far reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, especially in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities”.

The central message of the IPCC report was that “global net human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45%from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050” (Net Zero means any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.).³

The 2020 Emissions Gap report of the UN Environment Programme had stated: “Despite a brief dip in carbon dioxide emissions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is still headed for a catastrophic temperature rise in excess of 3°C this century—far beyond the Paris Agreement’s goals of 2°C and 1.5°C”.⁴

The main objective of the Glasgow climate conference would be to secure commitments of carbon emission cuts matching the above warnings from the participating countries.

As a country that is vulnerable to all the negative impacts of climate change, Pakistan has an existential interest in the outcome of COP 26. How can Pakistan utilize the Glasgow meeting to secure greater appreciation of its vulnerability to climate change and increase support for its efforts toward the twin objectives of adapting its economy to the adverse effects of climate change and contributing to the global endeavor to reverse it?

The Road to Paris (COP 21, December 2015) from Rio de Janeiro (the UN Conference on Environment and Development- UNCED-, June 1992).

In a remarkable example of policy being defined by science, leaders of more than 195 states adopted an agreement—the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or UNFCC—in June 1992 at the conclusion of the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, also called the Earth Summit). The agreement was culminated after more than a year and half long negotiations aimed at implementing the recommendations of the first assessment of the Inter- Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the prestigious assessment panel established by the UN in 1987 to investigate all aspects of climate change, including international cooperation to address the newly identified global threat.

The Climate Change Convention upheld the scientific consensus that the huge increase in heat-trapping Greenhouse Gases (GHG), especially carbon dioxide (CO2) released from burning of coal, gas and, later, oil for generating energy since the Industrial Revolution has upended the natural balance of the planetary climate. It also confirmed that although developing countries had not contributed to the historic buildup or new releases of carbon, they would likely  bear the major brunt of the  disruptions wrought by a heating planet such as  high surface and ocean temperatures and extreme weather events like floods and droughts, coastal hurricanes, rapid melting of Ice and snow stored by the planetary glacial system, rising  sea level and ocean acidification flooding coastal regions,  tsunamis and life threatening heatwaves.

The Convention stated the obligation of developed countries to lead the efforts to restore climate stability as well as assist developing countries, through financial and technological support to cope with the negative effects of climate change. The UNFCC stressed that climate change, being a global threat, could only be addressed through concerted actions by the international community and instituted annual ministerial level meetings of countries that had ratified the Convention to consider cooperative measures for restoring climate stability. The Convention embraced the ‘principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ (CBDR) in regard to actions to roll back climate change.⁵

The third meeting of Parties (COP3) of the UNFCC, held in Kyoto (Japan) in December 1997, adopted an agreement called the Kyoto Protocol requiring the thirty–eight (38) developed countries identified in the Convention to reduce their carbon emissions by 5% compared to 1990 levels in an effort to mitigate global warming and its consequences. The United States Congress rejected the Protocol.  The implementation of the Protocol was uneven because several rich countries reneged on their commitments.⁶

The UNFCC and the Kyoto Protocol led to the establishment of scores of climate change research stations and advocacy forums to advance scientific research on all aspects of climate change, especially the drivers and impacts of climate change as well as mitigation efforts such as promoting better management of forests, energy efficiency and conservation and developing cleaner, non- fossil-based sources of energy. However, both developed and developing countries continued to spew growing amounts of carbon and other GHG due to their fossil fuel powered industrial development and energy intensive lifestyles.

In 2006, China replaced the United States as the largest emitter of CO2 although the US and other OECD countries continued to release huge quantities of CO2.  Russia and a few developing countries in different regions also increased their GHG emissions, thanks to their rapid industrial and agricultural development.⁷

Anticipating the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012—while climate change was getting worse—COP 13, held in Bali (Indonesia) in 2007, decided to initiate negotiations for a new agreement on sharper reduction in the ever-increasing global carbon emissions.  Developed countries jointly demanded commitments by the fast-developing countries to curtail their carbon emissions in order to promote climate change mitigation. Developing countries initially resisted but eventually conceded whilst linking their emission cuts to financial and technological cooperation and support by the developed countries.⁸

COP15, held in Copenhagen in December 2009, was expected to adopt a new climate agreement. Negotiations were plagued by evidently unbridgeable differences between the developed and developing nations.  At the last minute, a group of world leaders, including   President Obama and President Xie Jinping, jointly drafted a short 2-page document captioned the ‘Copenhagen Accord’, containing key elements of global climate action concerning   Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance, Technology support, and Capacity Building. They were able to secure the support of a large number of developing and least developed countries for the Accord. However, the statement was turned down by the concluding plenary of the Conference.⁹

Despite the formal rejection of the Copenhagen Accord, its major elements were elaborated during COP 16 and subsequent conferences which formally approved the arrangements, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, the Technology Support Network, etc. The Paris Agreement adopted at COP21, held in Paris in December 2015, consolidated all the previous decisions and added new elements.¹⁰

The Paris Agreement:

The Paris Agreement declared that “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre- Industrial levels” was the overriding goal to be pursued by the international community. It called for mitigation through reduction in greenhouse gas emissions carried out by countries “on a voluntary basis” and pledged in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to be notified by all parties and updated periodically.  Developed countries committed to jointly mobilize USD 100 billion per year in public and private funds from 2020 onward for supporting developing and least developed countries in their mitigation and adaptation actions.  The Agreement mentions the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage agreed at a previous conference to support countries adversely affected by extreme climate events but did not provide any funding for its activities. The Agreement confirmed the establishment of a Technology Mechanism to assist developing countries in receiving climate friendly technology. It also mentioned capacity building support to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation actions, technology development and deployment, access to climate finance; education and training.

The most striking feature of the Paris Agreement was that, whilst it upheld the UNFCC, it abolished, in practical terms, the so- called firewall between developed and developing countries based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) by requiring all countries, rich or poor, to commit to reducing their carbon emissions.

Under the Paris Agreement all parties shall submit their revised NDCs by 2021 which would replace those compiled in 2015. The NDCs are required to be updated every five years. The underlying hope is that peer pressure, technological improvements and reduced costs of renewable energy would enable countries to pledge deeper cuts in their carbon emissions. The Agreement prescribes stringent measures for ensuring clarity, transparency, and understanding (CTU) for the pledges contained in the NDCs in order to ensure that Parties report accurately on their carbon inventories and how they intend to mitigate their emissions. The CTU measures will also be used for considering the requests of developing countries for financial support from the GCF. The CTU provisions were to be elaborated during future COPs.

It took protracted negotiations over three COPs in 2016-8 to reach agreement on CTU and other provisions of the Paris Agreement, collectively referred to as the Rule Book of the Paris Agreement.  For developing countries like Pakistan with limited scientific knowledge and technical expertise the CTU related decisions pose a daunting challenge. For example, the decision on transparency is accompanied by a long annex containing the ‘Modalities, Procedures, and Guidelines’ (MPGs) under various headings such as national inventory reports of carbon emissions by sources and ( their) removals by sinks; metrics ; reporting guidance; information necessary to track progress in implementing and achieving NDCs concerning mitigation, climate change impacts and adaptation; information on technology development and transfer and capacity building support. Only a handful of developing countries will likely have the requisite technical competence to implement the guidelines.¹¹

Reflecting eagerness to promote effective mitigation measures, the Paris Agreement (Article14) provides for a Global Stock take of the implementation of the Agreement in all respects in 2023 and every five years thereafter.¹² The underlying hope is that the international community will be able to calibrate its climate related actions, especially mitigation, according to the latest available scientific assessment and political consensus.

Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan.

The impact of climate change on communities, countries, and regions as well as ecosystems will be proportionate to their vulnerabilities. Further, whilst some of the effects of climatic changes will be unprecedented—for example, the rising levels of seas and their consequences and the acidification of oceans—in most cases climate change will tend to amplify pre- existing fault lines, such as special geographical features or patterns of precipitation. It is, therefore, useful to understand the physical and man-made conditions which account for the climate vulnerabilities of the respective country, region or ecosystem.

Pakistan’s vulnerabilities to climate change have been shaped by the country’s geo-physical features, large and fast-growing population, rampant poverty, low levels of scientific and technical knowledge as well as governance, policy, and institutional deficits. Most of the ecosystems have been rendered vulnerable by the poor quality of the bulk of our land mass marked by arid and semi-arid soil, low level of precipitation, and erratic supply of fresh water. Pakistan’s fresh water supply depends on the melting of ice and snow stored by the high-altitude mountain glaciers of the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush which feed all the rivers of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan’s single river basin. The country’s surface and underground water resources are supplemented by rain from the monsoons. Since both glacier melt and the major monsoon rains occur during the four summer months, Pakistan has to contend with varying degrees of water shortage during some or most of the remaining eight months.

Owing to the aridity of its soil and low level of precipitation, Pakistan’s agricultural outputs are critically dependent on perennial irrigation; poor monsoon rains are a sure recipe for low productivity and food deficit.

Pakistan’s 1000 km long coastline makes the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan highly vulnerable to the ravages of rising sea levels which have already destroyed human settlements, affected fisheries, and salinized large areas in the historically fertile Indus delta.  More than a million members of the fishing community and farmers have been driven out of their homes and livelihoods by the rising sea level.¹³

Pakistan had, at the time of independence, meager (5%) forest cover, mostly limited to the northern region.  Poor governance and management and willful pillage perpetrated by timber mafia have further reduced the green cover.

The tyranny of our physical and topographical contours is accentuated by our chronic governance and policy and institutional weaknesses as well as widespread poverty and ill health. All these add up to heightened vulnerability, especially during extreme weather phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, heatwaves storms, and droughts.

To sum up, freshwater resources and disaster risk management are the two most vulnerable sectors of Pakistan.  A significant reduction in our surface water will adversely affect our food security, our large and important livestock sector, and our hydropower and nuclear power generation capacities. Similarly, climate – induced weather conditions such as floods, droughts, intense heatwaves invariably cause large scale infrastructural damage and health hazards.

An Overview of Pakistan’s Climate Change Policies and Initiatives.

• The Task Force on Climate Change (2008-2010)

The establishment of a multi-disciplinary Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC) comprising of experts drawn from the Government and civil society in October 2008 under the auspices of the Planning Commission was the first significant initiative of the Government of Pakistan to assess the challenges posed by climate change and identify measures to mitigate the causes of anthropogenic temperature rise. The TF was also mandated to propose how Pakistan could adapt its economic sectors and ecosystems to the negative consequences of climate change. With the assistance of a small but competent secretariat provided by the Global Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC)—a climate research and modeling Centre set up by the Government in 2002—and inputs by half a dozen inter-ministerial working groups, the TFCC was able to produce, in a little over a year, a comprehensive report. The report listed the negative effects of climate change on our natural resources and key economic sectors such as fresh water, agriculture and livestock and food security, energy security, sustainability of our coastal areas and Indus Deltaic Region, forests and other vulnerable ecosystems. It also reviewed the over- all institutional capacity of the country   for dealing with climate change. The TF proposed a set of objectives for a climate change policy of Pakistan. The final report of the TFCC was submitted to the Cabinet in February 2010.¹⁴

• The National Climate Change Policy of Pakistan (NCCP)-2012

The TFCC report served as the basis for Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) developed in 2012, listing over a hundred policy recommendations related to energy, water resources, food production, health, disaster risk management and coastal and Deltaic region.  The policy recommendations were entirely based on the familiar work of climate change experts and relevant decisions of UN agencies. They covered both mitigation and adaptation as well as disaster preparedness and management and capacity building of departments dealing with sectors prone to adverse climate impacts.

NCCP’s recommendations on adaptation included water resource management:  building of additional storage dams and distribution infrastructure; conservation of both surface and ground water through legislation and enhanced management; protection of wetlands and rangelands; addressing all aspects of sea water rise and intrusion in coastal and Deltaic areas. The Policy also called for addressing the climate challenges of agriculture and livestock sector, including development of new varieties of higher yielding and heat resistant crops; introducing new heat resistant livestock; modern, micro irrigation methods such as sprinklers and drip irrigation. The section on adaptation also included suggestions regarding health and sanitation, including clean drinking water.¹⁵

The NCCP’s section on climate mitigation identified energy, agricultural practices, industrial processes, Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry and waste as the main contributors to Pakistan’s relatively small GHG emissions. The policy recommendations included measures to enhance energy efficiency and conservation as well as development of alternative and renewable sources of energy such as hydro, solar, wind, bioenergy, geothermal, and electricity produced from municipal waste.¹⁶

The NCCP also called for efforts to preserve the country’s biodiversity through more effective implementation of the biodiversity action plans, expansion of national protected areas, and protection of coastal mangroves, etc.

The NCCP recommended the establishment of CCP Implementation Committees at federal and provincial levels. It suggested that a high-level National Climate Change Committee chaired by the Prime Minister guide and encourage its effective implementation.

The NCCP called for strengthening the institutional capacities of of federal and provincial governments, stressed the importance of regional and international cooperation for promoting the global and national climate goals and suggested enhanced participation by Pakistan in inter- governmental climate discourses.¹⁷

• The Framework for the Implementation of the NCCP

In 2013 the M/O Climate Change compiled a Framework for the Implementation of the NCCP which prioritized the implementation of the recommendations giving higher priority to water resources and energy resources.¹⁸ However, neither the long list of suggested policy interventions noted in the NCCP nor those included in its implementation framework were implemented or even elaborated through time-bound, costed programs and projects.  The high-level Climate Change Committee did not meet even once.  The M/O Climate Change continued to suffer from chronic human, financial, and technical resource deficits.  The only provincial government which made efforts to implement the NCCP was the Punjab Government.  No efforts were made to promote inter- ministerial coordination on climate change issues. The quality of Pakistan’s participation in regional and international conferences also remained lackluster.

In 2013-14, under the guidance of the Government headed by Nawaz Sharif, the Planning Commission compiled Vision 2025—a medium-term national development framework with high sounding objectives and ambitions. The Vision document noted the findings of the fifth (5^th) Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) on the risks posed by climate change in the absence of adequate actions by the international community to drastically slash GHG emissions.  Vision 2025 promised to protect Pakistan’s economy and ecosystems from the negative effects of climate change. However, there was no follow up on the recommendations included in Vision 2025. Even the subsequent Five-Year Plan did not reflect its targets.¹⁹

• The National Climate Change Act (2017)

In 2017 Pakistan’s parliament adopted a National Climate Change Act proposed by the Ministry of Climate Change which qualifies as the most significant milestone in the evolution of Pakistan’s climate change agenda.  The Act provides for a robust institutional architecture for addressing risks posed by climate change to Pakistan. The Act provides for the establishment of a National Climate Change Council (NCCC) chaired by the Prime Minister or a Minister appointed by him. The NCCP is mandated to approve national climate –related policies and coordinate their implementation.²⁰

 The Act also provides for the formation of a National Climate Change Authority (NCCA) to serve as the main mechanism for the entire spectrum of climate change actions, including finalizing climate change programs and projects, particularly those submitted for funding to the Green Climate Fund and other multilateral funding windows, including International Finance Institutions (IFIs). The Climate Change Authority is to be advised and supported by several advisory committees comprising of experts in relevant subjects representing ministries and other public sector organizations as well as the civil society, including those belonging to international non- governmental organizations.²¹

The Act also provides for the establishment of a National Climate Change Fund for receiving contributions, grants and endowments for climate related activities and disbursing the same for climate related activities.  However, it does not mention the size of the Fund.²²

Climate Change experts have been demanding the earliest possible operationalization of the Climate Law in order to see purposeful actions for addressing climate change risks. Regrettably the current PTI Government has evidently put the Climate Law on the back burner in a blatant and inexplicable defiance of the demands of civil society and the need for the institutional mechanisms enshrined in the Law. The Government seems oblivious of the fact that a robust institutional set up is indispensable for Pakistan’s effective participation in the global climate efforts and receiving support from the Green Climate Fund and other multilateral windows of finance as well as the mechanisms for facilitating transfer of climate friendly technologies and enhancing the capacities of relevant institutions.

• The Alternative and Renewable Energy Development Policy (2020)

In August 2020, the then Federal Power Minister announced a new Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy, representing an upgraded version of the 2006 ARE Policy but not superseding it. The policy takes on board the global technological advances in renewable energy technologies and best practices concerning investment.²³

The new targets fixed by the Government for renewable energy include generating 8000 MW of electricity by 2025 and 20,000 by 2030 representing 20 and 30% of Pakistan’s energy from renewable sources. The feasibility of achieving this target has been confirmed by technical studies commissioned by the World Bank.  The Power Minister mentioned that the combined share of renewable energy and hydropower would be 52% in 2025 and reach 63% by 2030.

The Government has claimed that the innovative modalities for the award of contracts for setting up RE plants which were based on global best practices would accelerate the pace of investment in clean energy.

As per the new policy, the Government will periodically announce the production targets, identify the sites, announce the type of renewable energy and invite bids by local and international investors.  The cost factor will be decisive in the award of contracts. The Government has also announced its resolve to actively promote domestic manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines.

The scope of renewable sources includes solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, ocean/tidal wave technology, energy from all kinds of waste and hydrogen or synthetic gas. A comprehensive study prepared by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with the Alternative and Renewable Energy Development Board has confirmed the promising potential of renewable energy in Pakistan.²⁴

Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2019-20 noted that the most significant feature of the new RE policy is that it makes a transition from the traditional methods of procurement based on cost plus and upfront tariffs to competitive bidding.²⁵

The Government has announced that the import of all equipment, machinery, and manufacturing material will be exempted from payment of duty. The earnings of RE projects will also be exempted from payment of income tax. Notably, the World Bank was requested to develop a strategy for the implementation of the new AED policy as well as organize auctions for securing competitive bidding for RE generation, including localization of manufacturing technology.²⁶

Prime Minister Imran Khan has been highlighting the target of securing 60% of energy from clean, renewable sources in his statements at global meetings. However, no concrete steps have been taken by the Government to effectively implement the new renewable energy policy.

• The National Water Policy (2018)

Given that the most serious negative impacts of climate change in Pakistan will be on the freshwater sector, it is important to mention the adoption in April 2018 of Pakistan’s first ever National Water Policy (NWP) under the auspices of the Council of Common Interest (CCI) and steered by the Planning Commission.  The NWP is a comprehensive framework document covering the entire spectrum of issues concerning fresh water resources.²⁷

The objectives of the NWP include: promotion of sustainable consumption and production patterns throughout the water sector from exploitation to utilization; promoting efficient use and conservation of water; improving availability, reliability, and quality of fresh water resources; improving urban water management; recycling and reuse of waste water by all user sectors; improved watershed management of rivers and water courses; enhanced management of  floods; effective management of droughts to ensure the sustainability of the Indus aquifer; better maintenance of water infrastructure; developing regulatory system for ground water; modern, micro irrigation techniques; protection of lakes,  and wetlands, for the protection of wild life and flora and fauna; assessing the impacts of climate change on the water sector and development of adaptation strategy; and mainstreaming of integrated management of water resources.²⁸

The NWP provides a broad framework for development of elaborate policies by both the Federal and Provincial government concerning subjects under their watch.  Perhaps, the most significant feature of the NWP is its provision of enhanced public sector investment in the water sector.²⁹

The NWP seems to have suffered the fate of the National Climate Law due to the evident indifference of the current Government. The Federal Ministry of Water Resources continues to be one of the weakest divisions of the Federal Government, despite the higher mandate and responsibilities assigned to it under the NWP. The half a dozen or so autonomous water related statutory bodies also suffer willful neglect and tend to operate in their own silos.

Climate Change Initiatives of the Current Government.

The current PTI Government headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan has impeccable environmental credentials.  At the commencement of the campaign for the 2014 election, the PTI was the only political party to come up with a well-prepared environmental manifesto.  The provincial government of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (2014-2018) in which PTI was a major partner carried out the highly successful Billion Tree Tsunami which has reportedly inspired the much more ambitious Ten Billion Tree Tsunami announced by the PTI Government following its electoral victory.

Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Special Adviser on Climate Change, Malik Amin Aslam, regularly issue statements reiterating their resolve to protect the natural environment of Pakistan.  They actively participate in the U.N. General Assembly, ECOSOC, and special  international climate change and biodiversity conferences and other forums at which they highlight their commitment to  global climate action.

The most significant climate change-related initiative of the current Government is the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami project aimed at planting and growing ten billion trees in all provinces and regions of Pakistan.  The project was launched in 2018.³⁰

The Government has set a target of planting One billion trees by end June 2021. The broader objectives of the Tree campaign is to revive the country’s forest and wildlife resources, to improve the overall conservation of the existing protected areas, encourage eco-tourism, and job creation.

Part of the funding for the 10 billion Tree Campaign will be provided by the Pakistan Eco- system Restoration Fund (ESRF)established by the Government which has received USD 180 million from the World Bank as well as some funding from the KFW- the German Development Finance Bank.  The ESRF will also provide funding for climate change adaptation projects such as Afforestation, Conserving bio- diversity and Mitigating Land Degradation, Conservation of Marine Life and Promoting Blue Economy, Promoting Eco-Tourism, and Electric Vehicles. The funds will be maintained by the Pakistan Natural Disaster Reduction Authority. The Pakistan Eco-system Restoration Fund was formally launched in Madrid in December 2019 during COP25.³¹

The Government has announced not to allow any additional coal-based power generation projects and claims to have replaced plans for two large coal-based power plants by hydropower projects.

The Government has decided to enlarge the country’s protected areas and has increased the number of national parks from thirty to forty-five. A National Park Service is being launched to create new jobs and ensure protection of the assets of the parks.

The Government has announced its intention to ban the import, production, and sale of all single-use plastics as part of combating pollution.

The Government has approved a National Electric Vehicles Policy targeting a 30% shift to electric cars by 2030. The Government has decided to promote use of cleaner fuels by all vehicles.

The Government is promoting a Recharge Pakistan program comprising of a number of conservation measures such as rain harvesting, storm water management and combating solid waste in twenty cities across the country.

The Government has launched the construction of a Zero Emission Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT) in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city with a population of nearly 15 million.  Funded by the Green Climate Fund, the project is due to be completed in 2024.  Similar projects have been completed in Lahore and Peshawar with funding from China (under CPEC) and the Asian Development Bank.³²

The Way Ahead: Recommendations for COP 26 and the longer-term.

Pakistan’s climate change policies and initiatives do not seem to compare favorably with those of other developing countries.  A major reason is the country’s  weak institutional architecture which is limited to a small, poorly-resourced  federal ministry of climate change and the Global Change Impact Study Centre( GCISC), Pakistan’s sole climate research and modeling Centre. The M/O CC was established in 2010 in the wake of the Eighteenth (18^th) Constitutional Amendment which had abolished the role of the Federal Government in environmental protection and devolved the subject of Environment and Ecology to the provinces.  Lobbying by Pakistan’s civil society supported by the UN agencies and international NGOs eventually led to the establishment of the M/O Climate Change from the debris of the erstwhile Ministry of Environment. Notwithstanding its nomenclature, the newly established ministry was also mandated to promote follow up on the dozen or so multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) ratified by Pakistan.

Despite the formal adoption of an ambitious National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), no effort has been made to equip the M/O CC with an adequate budget, technically qualified human resources, and a respectable profile to enable it to serve as the fulcrum of efforts to address the most daunting threat of climate change. Thus far, one of the few climate change related functions performed by the M/O CC is to send a few of its officials to the annual COPs without a brief or guidance on the positions to be taken by the Pakistan delegation on the issues being deliberated at the conference. The officials neither write any report on their contribution to the debates, nor inform the general public about the outcome of the COP from Pakistan’s perspective. Pakistan has not been able to play a prominent or active role at the COPs. Its delegations are obliged to pay lip service to the positions articulated by the Group of Like- minded Countries on the issues being considered by the COPs.

Preparations for COP 26.

Given the increasing attention being paid by Prime Minister Imran Khan to environment and climate change issue and his impressive participation in the various climate related high level virtual conferences, it is hoped that the Government would make an effort to ensure a more meaningful participation in the forthcoming COP 26 in Glasgow.

The most important obligation of all Parties to the Paris Agreement is the submission during 2020 of the document comprising of its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Accordingly, the Government must ensure that its new NDC submission is prepared in time and   includes the elements identified during inter-governmental discussions on the subject. Even if the task of revising the NDC is assigned to external consultants, the Special Adviser to the Prime Minister for Climate Change must ensure that Pakistani stakeholders, including senior officials of the key federal ministries and civil society representatives, are associated with the process from the outset. This will ensure that the NDC commitments enjoy the ownership of all the relevant stakeholders.

Prior to the Glasgow conference, the M/O CC, in cooperation with UN agencies and civil society organizations, should organize stakeholder consultations on the key issues to be addressed during the meeting with a view to ensuring that the Brief compiled by the M/O CC for COP 26 takes on board the views of all the stakeholders.  The Brief should be widely disseminated among the officials of the federal and provincial governments who are likely to join the Pakistan delegation at COP 26 as well as civil society and the media.

Following the conclusion of COP 26, the M/O CC should brief the Cabinet and the relevant parliamentary committees as well as the general public on the outcome of the conference and how the Government intends to follow up on its decisions.

Beyond the Glasgow Climate Conference.

• Recognize Climate Change as a national security imperative.

Pakistan’s National Security Policy and Strategy which is said to be under preparation should formally recognize climate change as a key factor of national security as a means of raising the profile of climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.

• Pakistan’s Revised National Climate Change Policy: preparation of the plans of action on mitigation (NAMAS) and adaptation (NAPAs).

At the request of the Government of Pakistan, the Asia and Pacific Regional Office of the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP- ROAP) is revising the country’s climate change policy.  This was long overdue since the existing NCCP (2012) was essentially meant to highlight possible mitigation and adaptation initiatives largely based on the report of the TFCC completed in 2010.

It is hoped that the new NCCP will benefit from global best practices and provide practical guidelines on the elaboration of Pakistan’s climate mitigation and adaptation priorities to catalyze the finalization of well-constructed Plans of Action on Mitigation and Adaptation.  Pakistan’s inability to evolve Mitigation and Adaptation strategies and action plans has been mainly responsible for the lack of substantive progress in the country’s climate agenda. The NCCP guidelines on mitigation and adaptation must necessarily aim at implementing the Rule Book of the Paris Agreement.

• Protecting Pakistan’s Transboundary Waters.

Pakistan must safeguard its rights as the main riparian of the Indus River System through the implementation, in letter and spirit, of the India-Pakistan Indus Waters Treaty (1960). It should also establish mutually beneficial cooperation with Afghanistan for the optimum development of the assets of the shared Kabul River Basin for the benefit of their fraternal peoples.³³

• Ensuring Implementation of policies already announced.

The new Alternative and Renewable Energy Development Policy (2020) and the plans for increasing the share of electric vehicles to 30% are highly laudable initiatives but their achievement is predicated on determined efforts, including the building of requisite infrastructure such as adequate number of conveniently located filling stations and mechanical maintenance of the vehicles.  As of now, there is no credible evidence of serious efforts to effectively implement either the new RE policy or bring on the road   electric vehicles that would help address one of the major sources of air pollution in the country apart from mitigating carbon emissions.

• Ensure adequate funding for the 10 Billion Tree Campaign.

The success of the Ten Billion Tree planting campaign will also depend on securing   funding from various sources, including the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility, in addition to administrative measures necessary for a huge program such as this.

• Strengthening capacities of the National and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities.

Given the likely increase in the number, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change, efforts must continue to be made to augment the forecasting, monitoring, assessment, and response capacities of the federal and provincial disaster management authorities of the country.

• Strengthening coordination among governments at all levels and non- state stakeholders.

It is suggested that the Government considers measures to ensure vertical and horizontal coordination. The aim of vertical coordination should be to harmonize climate-related initiatives of the key federal ministries and departments such as finance, revenues, energy, food security and agriculture, foreign affairs, and climate change. The horizontal coordination would ensure that the actions for the implementation of the climate change mitigation and adaptation are taken up by or with the full participation of the provincial government agencies at lower levels.  Efforts should also be made to enlist the support of non-state stakeholders, in particular the private sector in disaster management.

• Operationalization of the National Climate Act (2017).

The Government should ensure the full operationalization of the Climate Law by formally announcing the formation of the National Climate Council chaired by the Prime Minister as well as its first meeting prior to COP 26; establishing the Climate Change Authority along with its advisory bodies, and the Climate Change Fund.

• Promotion of climate – related cooperation with China and other friendly countries.
• Given the benefits of cooperation with our neighboring countries with similar topographical and socio-economic conditions, the Government should continue its efforts to resuscitate  the currently moribund South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) under whose umbrella considerable progress had been made in identifying areas of climate related cooperation and establishing over half a dozen regional centres for catalyzing inter-governmental cooperation in areas of special concern to the  South Asian region.

• The Government should also actively explore the potential of beneficial cooperation with China which has emerged as the world leader in key mitigation activities such as renewable energy, manufacture of electric vehicles, and combating desertification and afforestation. Climate-focused collaboration, including the manufacturing of equipment for renewable energy such as solar panels, storage batteries, and wind turbines should be added to the Terms of Reference of the existing Sino-Pakistan institutional mechanism.

• The Government may also seek to forge climate related cooperation with other friendly countries in the OECD. The efforts might be spearheaded by the establishment of a task force chaired by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to identify measures to promote cooperation with friendly countries, the U.N. system and multilateral agencies for spurring low carbon green growth in Pakistan.

• Enhancement of the quality of climate related courses of study and training in the country.

A large number of Pakistani universities are offering graduate and post-graduate courses of Study in environmental sciences and climate change.  The quality of instruction and training has been uneven.  There is an urgent need to improve the quality of instruction and training offered by our educational institutions. Friendly countries and U.N. agencies such as UN University, UNEP, UNDP, and UNITAR and universities in friendly developed countries may be approached for supporting our climate related academic courses.

———————————————————————————

 

1. https://www.un.org/en/un-climate-change-conference-cop-26
2. https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate
3. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
4. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019
5. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
6. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf
7. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/jun/19/china.usnews
8. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/past-conferences/bali-climate-change-conference-december-2007/cop-13
9. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/l07.pdf
10. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
11. Ibid
12. Ibid
13. http://www.gcisc.org.pk/TFCC%20Final%20Report.pdf
14. Ibid
15. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/pakistan/laws/national-climate-change-policy-4a9d1103-1933-491c-98ff-87f4dd489c47
16. Ibid
17. Ibid
18. http://www.gcisc.org.pk/Framework%20for%20Implementation%20of%20CC%20Policy.pdf
19. https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/vision2025/Pakistan-Vision-2025.pdf
20. http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/documents/1491459994_555.pdf
21. Ibid
22. Ibid
23. https://www.aedb.org/images/Draft_ARE_Policy_2019_-_Version_2_July_21_2019.pdf
24. https://irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Renewables-Readiness-Assessment-Pakistan
25. http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1920.html
26. Shafqat Kakakhel, 2021, ‘Development of Renewable Energy in Pakistan: Prospects and Challenges’, Pakistan Army Green Book 2021 (pages 135-146).
27. https://mowr.gov.pk/index.php/national-water-policy-2018/
28. Ibid
29. Ibid
30. http://www.mocc.gov.pk/ProjectDetail/M2QzOWJmMjUtZTU3MC00NmFkLWE4YmMtZDFhMmRlOGU2NGRh
31. https://www.ndrmf.pk/pressreleases/launch-of-pakistans-ecosystem-restoration-fund-at-cop25-madrid-spain/
32. https://www.adb.org/projects/47279-002/main
33. Shafqat Kakakhel, 2019, ‘Pakistan’s Water Security: The Transboundary Dimension, Criterion Quarterly, Vol 14, No. 2.