M. Saeed Khalid*
*The author is a former Ambassador of Pakistan.
Joe Biden represents the calm that followed Trump’s storm
Ten days after being sworn in as 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden made his first foreign policy statement at the State Department. Among the subjects covered by Biden, there were notable omissions like the Israel-Palestine dispute and the US-Iran relations. However, Biden had already announced his intention to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, and gave quick indications that Trump’s negative policies towards the Palestinians would be reversed percetibly, as explained later in this piece.
In the statement of 4th February, Biden expressed his desire to bring an end to the conflict in Yemen while continuing support to Saudi Arabia’s security. The US is ending all support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen. Biden referred to attacks against Saudi Arabia from Iranian supplied forces in the region and expressed “continued support and help for Saudi Arabia to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and its people.”
On the diplomatic front, Washington will support “the United Nations led initiative to impose a ceasefire, address humanitarian challenges and restore long dormant peace talks.” A career diplomat, Tim Lenderking has been appointed as the US special envoy to the Yemen conflict to push for its diplomatic resolution. Diplomatic efforts will be backed by the USAID’s humanitarian mission.
It is to be recalled that President Obama initially supported the Yemen war, partly to assuage Saudi anger over the Iran nuclear deal. Biden administration’s concern about human rights violations, notably the Khashogi murder, notwithstanding, Washington needs to keep relations with Saudi Arabia in a satisfactory state because not much can be accomplished without taking the Saudis on board. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst says that the US has to understand that “Saudi Arabia is absolutely crucial for them to be able to do anything in the region.”
Biden has to tread cautiously on the long standing Israel-Palestine issue as support to the Jewish state remains a pillar of US policy that enjoys bipartisan support.
At this stage, it is relevant to trace how Trump and Netanyahu changed American policies in the area, beyond recognition.
Step by step, they proceeded to undo Obama’s legacy, most notably by reversing his decoupling of US strategy from Israel’s and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Marwan Bishara, a leading Arab scholar writes that Trump and Netanyahu “demonised the Iranian leadership” and worked hard to “establish a new strategic partnership” between Israel and the rulers of Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Together, they castigated Europe for abiding by the Iran nuclear agreement, and persecuted the Palestinians to submit to their dictates. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, crafted the infamous deal of the century in line with Netanyahu’s colonial logic in Palestine.
Trump’s favours to Israel and Netanyahu began with the official recognition of Jerusalem as the Jewish state’s capital, followed by opening of the American embassy in 2018. Trump signed a presidential proclamation in 2019, recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Further, secretary of state Mike Pompeo signed a declaration that the “establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with the international law.”
In August 2019,Trump declared himself “history’s most pro-Israel US president.” In January 2020, Netanyahu described Trump as “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” Trump and Kushner rushed the so called Abraham Accords, leading to the establishment of diplomatic relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan as well as the normalization of relations with Morocco.
Cumulatively, these steps have resulted in a paradigm where the stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians has turned to the former’s favour.
Trump’s anti Iran policies have strengthened Israel’s partnership with Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia and other GCC members.
With Trump defeated and gone, “Israelis should prepare for the return of a more measured approach that features, among other things, greater understanding for Palestinian viewpoints and a renewed push for compromise with Iran” wrote Shalom Lipner in an article published by Foreign Policy.
Some policy moves by Trump may very well remain unchanged. The normalization of Arab relations with Israel enjoys bipartisan support. The plan to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is also unlikely to be undone. A return to the Iran nuclear deal could take time to revive. The complex layers of sanctions on Iranian organizations and individuals can take months to work through, say experts.
The new administration has taken a number of steps relating to the Middle East during its first week in office. The acting US envoy to the UN, Richard Mills, while reacting to a Palestinian proposal for an international conference, declared the administration’s intention to “restore credible US engagement with Palestinians as well as Israelis.”
Mills also referred to Biden’s intent to “restore US assistance programs that support economic development and humanitarian aid for the Palestinian people and to take steps to reopen diplomatic missions that were closed by the last administration.” This plan has, however, run into obstacles such as a law passed during the Trump presidency that exposes Palestinian officials to US anti-terror lawsuits.
Another indication of the new policy was the US joining security council members who reaffirmed the need for a two state solution under which Israel and a future Palestine would coexist.
Among the initial steps taken by the Biden administration is a pause in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the delivery of a F-35 jets to the UAE while a review of the deals is carried out. It has already indicated its plans to end support for the Saudi-led, UAE-backed offensive in Yemen.
Despite Biden’s commitment to multilateralism, the matter of the US returning to the Iran nuclear deal is likely to take months due to legal and technical complexities. Secretary Blinken stated that, “President Biden has been very clear in saying that if Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same thing” implying its return to the nuclear deal.
Tehran lost no time in dismissing the US call for full compliance with the JCPOA. Foreign minister Javad Zarif blamed Washington for its unilateral withdrawal from the plan and imposing sanctions on Iran which included supplies like food and medicines. It was, therefore, the US that should take the first step, he argued. This position was later endorsed by the spiritual guide Ali Khamenei.
The Saudis and the Emiratis have reasons to be concerned about the Biden team’s moves. They have already taken an important step to consolidate the Gulf unity by normalising relations with Qatar which in turn has hastened to propose a dialogue between the Arab states and Iran, aimed at detente. With Washington signaling withdrawal of support to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen, scenarios of Arab-Iran dialogue can be a possible way forward of reducing hostilities in the war ravaged country and bringing down tensions in the region.
The Biden team would realise that with a nascent Arab-Israel alignment to counter Iran’s growing power, geopolitics in the Gulf region has undergone major changes. The Democrats can give, and encourage other players to give, a fair chance to diplomacy, and discourage war mongering in the period ahead.
