While brain drain is a ubiquitous occurrence, it is more prevalent in developing nations. Essentially, it denotes the migration of highly skilled and qualified individuals from their country of origin to another that offers better economic and social opportunities.
“Brain drain is a significant issue that confronts countries grappling with multifaceted economic and political crises. Yet, it remains unclear whether this phenomenon poses a cause for concern in a country with a population exceeding 230 million, where over 60% of the populace is below the age of 30 and estimated 29% is between 15-30 years of age presenting a huge youth bulge”
However, in the current globalized era, this phenomenon can serve as an opportunity for developing countries to leverage their abundant human capital by investing in their education sector to produce qualified and skilled human resources that can address national needs and compensate for emigrated individuals.
The traditional literature notes that the trend of intellectual migration, which sees a significant loss of highly educated and skilled individuals after one or two generations, can have a detrimental impact on the economy and society as a whole. Bhagwati and Hamada (1974) contend that the emigration of these individuals is a curse for developing countries since the investment in higher education and training is lost when they do not return. This results in a reduction of human capital supply in the source countries, which can negatively affect their long-term economic growth.
Moreover, the exodus of human capital can lead to a loss of foreign currency as individuals settle abroad. Although the destination countries benefit from the influx of skilled manpower, the source countries suffer from brain-drain2.
The term “Brain Drain” was coined by the British Royal Society to describe the outflow of scientists and technologists to the United States and Canada in the 1950s and early 1960s. There have been three distinct historical periods in the evolution of this phrase. During the second period, from the 1970s to the 1990s, most academic reviews concluded that while the host nation benefited from the influx of skilled individuals, the original country did not. To address this issue, scholars recommended implementing migration policies and strengthening the role of international organizations and institutions in managing migrant flows. The third period, from the 1990s to the present, has seen scholars exploring various aspects of migration from both positive and negative perspectives, leading to the emergence of new concepts related to brain- drain.
PAKISTAN’S CURRENT SITUATION
Pakistan has been tackling a significant brain drain problem for several decades now. It is being ranked among the top 10 countries for human capital mobility. The country has experienced a considerable loss of highly skilled human resources since independence in 1947, with the situation worsening after 1971.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment, over 10 million Pakistanis, skilled and unskilled workers, have moved abroad. The trend continued in 2022, with a total of 832,339 registered workers from Pakistan employed abroad. According to another report, 765,000 people left the country in 2022, including 900 teachers, 2,500 doctors, 1,600 nurses, 5,500 engineers, 2,000 IT experts, 2,600 agricultural experts, and 6,500 accountants3. This mass exodus of skilled professionals from Pakistan has resulted in a shortage of qualified personnel in many critical sectors.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the country needs around 35,000 doctors every year to meet its healthcare needs. However, more than 40,000 Pakistani doctors, including dentists, are currently working abroad. The brightest and top doctors are leaving the country to pass exams like the USMLE exams or UK PLAP exams, leaving behind a vacuum in the healthcare sector4.
The IT industry is also affected by the brain drain problem. The country faces a shortage of skilled IT professionals, with the industry estimated to need an additional 100,000 workers by 2023. The problem is compounded by the fact that the country’s education system is struggling to keep pace with the latest technologies and industry demands, resulting in a shortage of qualified IT professionals.
DRIVERS OF EXODUS
The brain drain phenomenon deprives the country of quality services as highly qualified and skilled professionals move out of the country creating a viscous cycle in which the growing youth migrate abroad for better service including health care and education.
Normally causes of outflow of talented emigrants for developed market economies are covered in general by means of push-pull model.
Push and pull factors regarding brain drain appear to be rooted in the unequal economic development of the emigration and immigration countries.
“The push factors for emigration from Pakistan are job dissatisfaction, poor salaries, less higher education opportunities, unequal opportunities for growth, unjust, merit less job placements, etc”
One of the primary reasons skilled professionals from Pakistan migrate to host countries is for better job opportunities. According to the International Monetary Fund the Unemployment Rate in Pakistan is around 6.2 percent which leads to brain waste where highly skilled people are underemployed. Jobs in Pakistan are also highly underpaid in comparison to the same job role abroad. Agha Khan Medical University conducted a study about the brain drain of (doctors) from Pakistan. As per research 95% of the students of Aga Khan University and 65% students of Baqai University wanted to emigrate due to poor salaries in Pakistan along with poor quality of training and work environment5.
The recent accelerated exodus of skilled human capital can be attributed to high inflation rate and future uncertainty. The inflation rate in Pakistan stands at 31.5% which has adversely affected people from all walks of life. The low salaries of skilled/unskilled labor in Pakistan further compound the sustenance issues for the families prompting the labor outflow. The devalued local currency adds to the allure of earning in foreign currencies to safeguard against the effects of economic instability. In addition, political instability in the country has created an environment of discontent among the people regarding the future of the country. People migrate to other countries in search of relative stability and security.
The Human Development Index (HDI) of Pakistan ranks 154 out of 189 countries, which implies that less effort has been paid on human resource development. Therefore, skilled professionals often face the issues related to non-availability of infrastructure for R&D in the relevant fields. The job prospects within the country are not lucrative to cajole the skilled manpower to work in the country.
In contrast, the pull factors include better job opportunities with higher salaries, better working conditions, and more career growth prospects. Moreover, developed countries often provide a higher standard of living, including better access to healthcare, education, and other basic necessities
THE FLIP SIDE
The composition of demographic and labor market indices in Pakistan suggests that the country can effectively use brain drain to its advantage. This is particularly relevant given the high rate of unemployment in the country. Moreover, 800,000 people out of a population of 220 million moving abroad constitute a mere 0.4%. This represents a valuable opportunity for Pakistan to harness the potential of its foreign diaspora and expedite human capital training programs to mitigate the impact of the exodus.
Brain drain is commonly viewed as a significant source of inward remittances from the expatriate workforce, which provides a substantial source of foreign exchange for developing countries like Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan recorded remittances growth at 26% and levels reaching $33 billion in 2021 depicting the value expats add to the economy. Additionally, the expatriate population is an essential source of support for their home country, particularly during national disasters. They are also a significant source of foreign direct investment, which contributes to the development and growth of the country.
The presence of skilled diaspora at key positions in developed countries can enhance the soft image of their home country and advocate for favorable policies. The Indian diaspora, including individuals such as ex-CEO of Twitter Parag Agrawal and current UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are prime examples of this. These people have an influential role to play in shaping the business expansion decisions of large multinational corporations in their countries of origin.
Skilled and qualified diaspora can also offer valuable knowledge and experience to the public and private sectors of their home country by acting as consultants. Additionally, they bring back new cultures, practices, and lifestyles, which can help diversify their home country’s society. Moreover, multinational corporations that send their employees abroad also contribute to brain circulation. This refers to the active return migration of native-born individuals, who can add to the educated population in the sending country and boost productivity.
Migration enhances the attractiveness of educational investments in the sending economy. The people get motivated by the prospects that the developed economy offers to qualified human resources thereby increasing the influx of student for higher education in the country. This in return leads to the accumulation of human capital and faster growth. This is referred to as the effect of induced education, the “brain effect,” or “brain gain.”
WAY FORWARD
Pakistan already has started a number of initiatives under HEC to prevent the brain drain and to benefit from the Pakistani diaspora abroad: Foreign Faculty Hiring Program, Reverse Brain Drain (RBD) Program, National Research Program for Universities, President’s Program for Care of Highly Qualified Overseas Pakistanis, Transfer of knowledge through expatriate nationals. These programs have different agendas: to temporarily or permanently relocate highly qualified professionals, retain them in Pakistan or to utilize the foreign diaspora for consultation, investment and research.
It is pertinent to understand that achieving socio-economic parity with developed countries is a gradual process that requires comprehensive efforts at all levels. Pakistan should therefore focus on policies that take advantage of its brain export situation and place it in a favorable position, rather than focusing solely on combating brain drain.
The admission requirement for public medical and engineering universities is very high. Almost 150,000 students appear in government administered medical college entry tests, out of which only 15,000 or 10% of the students get admissions in 114 public and private sector medical colleges of Pakistan6. This number states the need for increasing the number of quality Higher Education Institutes to meet the national demand and produce highly qualified professionals at a rate higher than the emigration rate. This refers to brain export where a country chooses to export its educated human capital for socio-economic benefits. As mentioned above, this also refers to the concept of induced education or brain effect where the prospects of moving abroad for or after high qualification increases the numbers of individuals opting for higher studies.
Pakistan should also consider devising a policy for minimal or token taxation of its expats, taking cues from the US model where a US expat has to file a US federal tax return and pay US taxes on his/her worldwide income.
In present times of high inflation and devalued national currency, people look for better salary packages and foreign currency earnings. In this globalized world, Pakistan can develop operations outsourcing destinations for big international companies owing to its cost differential environment. Therefore, Pakistan should devise policies that attract these companies to open offices in the country thereby creating well-paying job opportunities and in return retaining the country’s skilled professionals.
The importance of stability in socio-political and economic domains cannot be over emphasized. The continuation of policies, better Human Resource Development, competitiveness with regional/global suppliers of manpower is essential and the dividends would be visible only after long term implementation of policies.
Moreover, a joint working group comprising of representatives from the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis & Human Resource Development, HEC, Ministry of Education, under the auspices of Ministry of Planning Development & Special Initiatives, can be constituted that undertakes a detailed study to identify key sectors for employment of labor overseas in relation with priorities of global job markets. The aim being to make Pakistan a global leader in labor supply in selected fields.
In addition, HEC, in line with its other programs, should launch scholarship programs to bright students with weak financial backgrounds to offset educational expenditures for higher education and jobs abroad. The students availing the scheme, upon finding a job/completing education, should be required to remit a fixed amount (inflation adjusted on yearly basis) in foreign currency on monthly basis to support future scholarships programs
CONCLUSION
Although brain drain can cause significant losses for Pakistan by depriving the country of highly skilled labor, it can also be a means of generating foreign exchange earnings and exerting foreign influence. However, Pakistan’s surplus labor does not guarantee that all market driven solutions are optimal for the country. It would require a long time to create sufficient demand for new labor and to provide socio economic incentives for highly skilled workers to remain in Pakistan. Instead, an alternate approach could be to focus on training locals to replace the departing highly skilled workers at a faster rate. The demographics of Pakistan make it essential to carefully consider the best strategy for addressing brain drain. Rather than allowing it to occur randomly, a planned brain export approach could help improve Pakistan’s national balance sheet by generating foreign revenue through foreign direct investment and remittances. Furthermore, such an approach could also encourage experienced manpower to return to Pakistan and support professional and technical education through brain circulation from Pakistani diasporas. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of the current migration trends in Pakistan to determine the best way forward.
References
- Bhagwati, Jagdish, and Koichi Hamada. “The brain drain, international integration of markets for professionals and unemployment: a theoretical analysis.” Journal of Development Economics 1, no. 1 (1974): 19-42.
- Brzozowski, Jan. “Brain Drain or Brain Gain? The New Economics of Brain Drain Reconsidered.” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008. https://doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.1288043.
- Ahmed, Waqas. “Country’s Brain Drain Situation Accelerated in 2022.” The Express Tribune, December 12, 2022.
- Syed, Nadir Ali, Farhad Khimani, Marie Andrades, Syeda Kausar Ali, and Rose Paul. “Reasons for migration among medical students from Karachi.” Medical education 42, no. 1 (2008): 61-68.
- Bokhari, Dr Wajahat. “Medical Colleges and Doctors in Pakistan – Too Many or Too Few?” THE NATION, September 2019.
