by Ozer Khalid*
*The author is a Senior Consultant, a Foreign Policy & Counter-Terrorism Expert, a regular Criterion Quarterly contributor and a global columnist. Email [email protected] Twitter verified @OzerKhalid
The most effective way for India to curb regional militancy is by granting the deserving Kashmiri people a referendum on self-determination, in keeping with international law and UN Resolutions 1514 and 2649. Failure by New Delhi to grant Kashmiris an independence referendum increases the influence of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, etc. who politically hijack genuine grievances of legitimate non-militant pro-Kashmiri freedom activists.
If India seeks geopolitical clout in Afghanistan—a lucrative future economy, a bridge to resource-rich Central Asian markets—it cannot sidestep the Chinese and Pakistani presence in Afghanistan. New Delhi must make concessions. Granting Kashmiris a referendum is the ethically right thing to do as this aligns with India’s realpolitik objectives of mollifying the trifecta: Kabul, Beijing and Islamabad.
However, Modi’s right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP), instead of honouring the 25 February, 2021 Pakistan-India ceasefire pact along the 734 km de facto Line of Control (LoC) border in disputed Kashmir, resorted to 1,595 ceasefire violations by Border Security Forces (BSF) with mortar shelling at Pakistani posts.
Furthermore, in one sweep, on 5 August 2019, Modi’s BJP regime did more to radicalize Indian-administered Kashmir than any extremist ever could by stripping the region’s autonomy and special status under Article(s) 370 and 35A of India’s Constitution.
Article 370’s revocation rewrites occupied Kashmir’s history, demographically depopulates Muslims, intensifies regional extremism likely to spill-over from Afghanistan and encourages Hindutva settlements.
Taliban 2.0 and Kashmir
The Taliban 2.0 opportunistically hedge their political bets by diplomatically courting both Islamabad and New Delhi. They outwardly support Pakistan and appear pro-Kashmir but simultaneously open diplomatic back-channel dialogue with New Delhi.
Taliban 2.0’s “Haqqani” faction favours Kashmiri self- determination, whereas the Mullah “Yaqoob” faction is pro-India. Deepak Mittal, India’s Ambassador to Qatar, met Stanekzai at India’s Embassy who assured New Delhi that Afghan soil will not be used against Indian interests. Stanekzai was 20 when he joined Dehradun’s Indian Military Academy.
India’s foreign secretary, Harsh V. Shringla, stated that “Whatever conversations we’ve had so far, The Taliban indicate that they will be reasonable in the way they handle things.”
Though the Islamic Emirate vowed not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, contradictory statements emerged. In an interview with News18, Taliban leader, Anas Haqqani, said: “Kashmir is not part of our jurisdiction and interference is against our policy.” In another interview with the Deccan Herald, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid urged Pakistan and India to jointly “resolve all issues.” Whereas Taliban’s spokesperson, Suhail Shaheen, told BBC that “we have this right being Muslims, to raise our voice for Muslims in Kashmir and India”.
In fact, Jaish-e-Mohammed’s chief, Masood Azhar, had a meeting with Taliban leadership in the third week of August, seeking strategic assistance in Kashmir.
Therefore, on Kashmir, Taliban 2.0 do not speak with “one voice”. Taliban 2.0 are not a unitary monolith but ideologically split. The Taliban central command in Kabul and Kandahar don’t have an “iron grip” over their more austere Provincial Commanders.
ISIS-Khorasan in Kashmir
On September, 13, Pakistan sent the world a comprehensive, detailed, well-researched, 131-page dossier presented by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, National Security Advisor and Human Rights Minister, offering detailed evidence that India is running five ISIS-K training camps.*
By injecting these state trained ISIS fighters, India will artificially try to doctor links of Kashmir’s bona fide freedom movement with international terrorism to malign the freedom struggle of Kashmiris and justify its own crimes and counter-terrorism.
Afghanistan’s emboldened ISIS-Khorasan could have a spill- over effect into Kashmir. The UN estimates that ISIS-K have at least 5,000 fighters in Afghanistan. The August 26 Kabul airport bomb blast shows ISIS-K’s operational sophistication. ISIS-K’s influence is increasing throughout the crucial Sopore-Baramulla belt.
ISIS-Khorasan terrorists now recruit Indian citizens through a social media Instagram platform named “Chronicle Foundation”, especially from Kerala. The Taliban recently detained 14 ISIS-K Keralites with explosives outside Turkmenistan’s Kabul embassy.
Regional Geo-Political Implications
Modi and BJP’s impunity imperils not only the citizens of occupied Kashmir but the Dogra community of Jammu, the Muslims in Pir Panjal and the Buddhists in Ladakh, to China’s ire, which claims Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley.
Kashmiris increasingly compare Indian military’s incompetence with China’s victory, successfully taking over 38,000 square kilometres of Ladakh. China partially stepped back from Pangong Tso, but is unlikely to relinquish the Hot Springs, Gogra or the Depsang plains strategically important to Beijing—being close to Kongka’s Pass between Xinjiang, Ladakh and Tibet, China’s most disturbed provinces.
India is going to be pressed in Kashmir by China on one side and by Kashmiri freedom fighters on the other—emboldened by the Taliban ascendancy in Afghanistan.
Recommendations for Containing Militancy in Disputed Kashmir
If New Delhi is serious about thwarting extremism it will have to: demilitarise the region, end extra-judicial killings, repeal the draconian 1990 Armed Forces Special Powers Act, rescind the Presidential rule allowing India’s Cabinet unilateralism over Kashmir and remove deadly landmines, signing up to Ottawa’s Mine Ban Treaty Convention and release legitimate Kashmiri leaders from prison. Arbitrary detentions only fuel extremism.
To thwart militant recruitment, the global community must pressure BJP’s government to allow independent fact-finding missions into occupied Kashmir.
The international community’s silence on India’s atrocities in Kashmir deafens. Whereas the Rohingya and Palestinians gain the required global media coverage (and rightfully so) occupied Kashmir, the world’s largest “open air prison” is largely ignored.
* Babar, Mariana (2021) Pakistan sends world 131-page dossier: India running five Daesh training camps, The News International, Jang Group, September 13, 2021.
