India is headed for general elections beginning on 19th April 2024, and closing on 1st June, with the results to be announced on 4th June. At stake are 543 seats of the lower house of parliament for a term of five years.
The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party – BJP led by prime minister Narendra Modi, seeking its third term in office is seen as a favourite to win the polls as India’s first-past-the-post electoral system helps the leading party to consolidate its gains. It is supported by several smaller parties in the National Democratic Alliance – NDA. Barring a big upset, the opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress does not appear to be in a position to dislodge the BJP and its allies from power.
Modi has been stepping up his election campaign by inaugurating symbolic projects notably a Hindu temple at the site of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. Since he first came to power in 2014, Modi has increased his popularity by mixing religion with politics, a formula that resonates well with the country’s Hindu majority while undermining India’s secular credentials.
Besides the centre, BJP and its allies rule in 18 out of 31 states and union territories. The capital Delhi, Punjab, West Bengal and five southern states are prominent among those ruled by the opposition parties.
In an overdrive to win the upcoming elections, the BJP-led government has started to use strong arm tactics to weaken the opposition parties by instituting cases against them. Delhi’s chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal was arrested on corruption charges just a month before the election. Some other AAP leaders were also detained. The chief minister of Jharkhand too has been arrested. Overall, the authorities raided or investigated 1500 politicians from the opposition parties since Modi came to power ten years ago.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was convicted on defamation charges for insulting prime minister Modi. Barely three weeks before the polls, the tax department ordered the Congress party to pay an additional 18.2 billion Indian rupees in taxes. The main opposition party termed it an attempt to financially cripple them before the elections.
The government’s actions have caused great anxiety in the opposition parties but it remains to be seen whether the 27-member INDIA alliance can close its ranks and have a major effect in preventing another victory for the BJP.
A recent opinion survey gave Modi a 75 percent approval rating. High income disparities and unemployment have not dented the mass appeal he enjoys by promoting a Hindu nationalist agenda, a rising economy, achievements in multiple social areas and an aggressive diplomacy. India’s foreign ministry dismissed calls by the US and Germany for a fair and transparent legal process for Kejriwal, describing the comments as interference in India’s domestic affairs.
Michael Kugelman, a Washington based South Asia expert expressed the view that “the government’s pre-election moves may momentarily unite a fractured opposition, but they won’t make many dents in Modi’s popularity or undercut his electoral prospects”. (Foreign Policy)
In a significant development, Modi government’s hostile actions have prompted the opposition alliance to close their ranks as seen in a huge protest rally in New Delhi on 31st March. They have also hastened to finalise lists of common candidates before the nominations are filed.
The BJP swept the 2019 elections by winning 303 of 543 seats of the Lok Sabha. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance finished with a total of 353 seats giving it an overwhelming majority in the lower house of Indian parliament. The Congress Party led by Rahul Gandhi won 52 seats but reached a total of 91 seats with its allies in the United Progressive Alliance. However, this time around, it may not be smooth sailing for the ruling coalition in many regions.
A report by ‘The Economist’ on India’s north-south divide in March, 2024 noted that Modi’s Hindu-first populism has helped him carry the Hindi speaking poorer, more populous and rural north. This programme does not appeal to the country’s richer, urban and more advanced south. “This north-south divide will be a defining issue in the election in April and May”.
India’s five southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana) contain 20% of India’s population, and 35% of the flow of foreign investment in the past three years. The south votes for regional parties, largely ignoring BJP’s Hindu identity politics and demonisation of Muslims.
In a recent analysis of the election campaign raging in India, Pakistani daily Dawn’s veteran New Delhi correspondent Jawed Naqvi wrote that the Modi government’s punitive measures against the opposition appear to “have revitalised a foundering campaign to dislodge Mr Modi in the multi-stage elections starting on April 19”.
Short of a victory, a weakened BJP-led coalition would be a worthwhile outcome for the united opposition.
In an analysis sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Milan Vaishnav affirms that Modi’s popularity remains intact and opinion surveys point to a victory for the BJP-led NDA alliance even if its majority reduces compared to its 2019 tally of 353 seats.
Among the pointers for the upcoming elections, Vaishnav cites:
- challenge of opposition coordination,
- battle for backward castes,
- race of competitive welfarism, and
- emergence of foreign policy as a mass issue.
As regards the opposition’s manoeuvres, Vaishnav refers to their decision in July, 2023 for the creation of a new formation of 27 parties by the name of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – INDIA. It includes the Congress Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (the ruling party in Tamil Nadu) the Aam Aadmi Party, ruling Punjab and Delhi, Communists of all stripes and several other parties. INDIA group of parties does not have a popular figure who can take on a larger-than-life leader to seriously challenge Modi.
Caste politics is an important factor in Indian elections. India’s Other Backward Classes (OBCs) account for more than 40 percent of the population. Modi, who happens to hail from the OBCs has worked hard to win over their votes. By 2014 elections, he had made large inroads among this community. By the 2019 election, the BJP had managed to get 41 percent of their vote as compared to 30 percent in 2014.
Caste politics is going to be a fierce struggle between the BJP and the so called Mandal parties in northern India, which mobilise on the basis of empowering backward castes. The Mandal parties’ resistance to the BJP is led by Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar.
Another factor impacting the voter behaviour is the Modi government’s welfare schemes like the distribution of gas cylinders, toilets, electricity connections and facilitation in opening bank accounts. In 2019-20, the government transferred assistance worth $34 billion to 700 million beneficiaries including farmers in this new welfarism operated through bank accounts.
In order to meet the challenge of voter support as a result of welfarism, the opposition parties too are promising massive benefits to the poor and needy.
“While generous welfare promises do not guarantee victory – evidenced by the recent state results – BJP will likely look to further innovate in this domain ahead of 2024, given the opposition’s fierce response to the party’s welfare gambit.”
There’s yet another domain where the opposition is on the backfoot. Modi has cleverly manipulated foreign relations to arouse nationalist fervour among the voters in BJP’s favour. His frequent recourse to summit level diplomacy and raising India’s profile in forums like G 20 and BRICS have left the impression that the country is finally playing a global role commensurate with the size of its population and economy. There is a widespread perception that Modi has elevated India’s status on the global stage.
‘The Economist’ acknowledged that “because of India’s economic heft, and its importance as a counterweight to China, Mr Modi has been welcomed with open arms by leaders worldwide”.
The most glaring case of manipulating foreign relations to heat up nationalist feelings was in evidence in the run-up to the 2019 elections when India raised tensions with Pakistan on the pretext of cross-border terrorism. There is a long history of military actions by various governments in India on the eve of general elections.
Despite the setback caused by Pakistan’s downing of an Indian fighter plane, the tensions fueled by the 2019 crisis were cleverly tapped into and owned on the campaign trail by Modi. Polling data suggested that heightened tension with Pakistan boosted the BJP’s fortunes, helping to displace the concerns about the economy.
Pakistan is closely watching the election process in India, mindful of the implications of another BJP victory, third in a row. Its ten-year rule has led to a strained relationship between the two countries. The situation worsened further after the abrogation of Article 370 in August, 2019 depriving Occupied Jammu & Kashmir of its special status.
Pakistan rejected India’s unilateral actions and followed up by lowering the level of diplomatic relations as well as suspending direct trade with India. The only silver lining has been the two sides’ affirmation of the ceasefire along the Line of Control in February, 2021 that has been followed by both sides.
Two Pakistan ministers have sent out feelers about the possibility of progress in relations with India. First, foreign minister Ishaq Dar alluded to the revival of direct trade with India. The defence minister, Khawaja Asif told the media that relations might improve after the Indian elections. The Indian government has not yet reacted to these upbeat references. Not many in Pakistan are betting on early improvement of relations, with some predicting that India may want to reset relations with Pakistan on its own terms. While in opposition, Modi thwarted moves for agreements with Pakistan during the Manmohan-led Congress government. It remains to be seen if any progress in ties with Pakistan comes about in the period ahead—post-2024 elections in India.
